Prediction Time as We Gear Up For Indoor Nationals

by Paul Michel
 

Three short days away from one of the best events of the track & field year ... NCAA Indoor Nationals.

Indoor Nationals is always a great time. Maybe it’s something about the amplified roar of the crowd, due to the fact that the spectators are right on top of the action. Perhaps it’s the increased tension and focus on racing tactics ... both products of races being run on smaller tracks with tighter turns and less room to pass. It could simply be the inclusion of arguably the best race in all of track & field ... the DMR (Can we get this event outdoors already?!). Or maybe it’s just the fact that indoors acts as sort of an enjoyable pre-study for a more im- portant outdoor campaign for most athletes.

Whatever the case, Indoor Nationals usually brings about great competitions and thrilling fin- ishes in just about every race. Watch the men’s 800 final from last year if you want a 2-min- ute snaphot of everything that’s great about indoors.

Incapable of taking my mind off of the looming excitement, I’ve decided to take a crack at predicting the winners this weekend in the men’s distance races. My apologies to the women and to all of the other events. But after all, I only have so much time to NOT work here. And anyhow, I’ll be focusing on the women for my recap on Sunday night.

Alright then ... let’s get into it:


DMR

Oregon Ducks

What’s interesting about this year’s DMR field is the inexperience. With the exception of Air Force, no other team has more than one SR. Furthermore, there aren’t any definitively supe- rior anchors (like a Wheating).

It basically came down to liking Fleet and Centro as bookends, and the fact that Elijah Greer is running the 8. While there wasn’t much discrepancy between any of the top teams’ 1200/ mile legs, Greer sets Oregon apart. Out of the other 11 teams, only 2 (Alabama and Arkansas) have 800 legs qualified individually in the 800.

It should be noted that I really like Batty on the anchor for BYU, but I just don’t quite see him being close enough to make it up (particularly with a mile prelim in his legs.)

800

Michael Preble

With Wheating and Andrews out, this year is WIDE OPEN. There is so much parity in the 800, as the entire field is separated by just over a second. It really wouldn’t be surprising if any one of these 16 entrants came away victorious.Like the DMR, inexperience is the defining trait with this group. While there are 5 seniors in the field, there is only 1 who has a top-5 seed (Cory Primm of UCLA). Also, the only runner in this year’s field that was in last year’s final is Zach Mellon (5th place 2010).

Having said all of that, my major deciding factor was that Greer is running the DMR as well. The fact that Preble will be fresh (outside of a prelim) moves him slightly ahead of Greer. Also, Preble and fellow Aggie Joey Roberts (2011 Big-12 800 champ) are going to be running on their home track. Whether or not it’s a huge advantage, it can’t hurt. I also liked Preble’s 600 yard at Big 12’s, narrowly missing the win to teammate Tabarie Henry (a 45.92 indoor runner in the 4) but still running 1:08!

MILE

Miles Batty

I struggled with this one, particularly because Patrick Casey won’t have to do the DMR. And having lived and competed at altitude the majority of my life, I know how unbelievably im- pressive his solo sub-4 was. And he did get 3rd last year. Umm ... maybe I should have picked Casey (?)

But having said all of that, I really like Batty’s experience and finishing speed. His 25.5 last 200 in New Mexico at the MWC championships is insane, even if they did go out slow. Casey has obviously shown that he can solo one heck of a race. But at a championship event, I have to go with someone with that finishing gear. I’m not saying Casey doesn’t have finishing speed ... I just like Batty’s.

I’ll take Batty by a slim margin, but if I were a betting man, I might take the field. And I can’t deny that part of me will be pulling for an individual National Championship for Binghamton. This should be a fun one.

3K

Elliott Heath

I tried to pick Andrew Bayer. I thought quite a bit about going with Centrowitz. For a moment I even had Chelanga written down.

But I just can’t do it.

I keep going back to Elliott Heath’s kick at the end of a 13:37 5K at the Husky Classic. If you haven’t watched it ... you need to. At first, I thought my computer was malfunctioning. Then I thought maybe Flotrack was trying their hand at digital animation. It just could not have been real. The moment I finally realized it was authentic ... I stopped sleeping. I haven’t slept in weeks. I wake up in cold sweats, thinking the man from that video is chasing me. It’s horrifying.

So there you have my reasoning for going with Heath. Fear. In all honesty, it should be a heck of a race, as it always seems to be. With the meet nearly done, the 3K is always a battle of attrition. It’s tough to say who will recover the best from previous races. But I like Heath’s 5K strength, coupled with ... that speed. Oh, that speed!

5K

Sam Chelanga

It’s hard not to go Chelanga here, although the aforementioned speed of Heath did make me think about it.

But with a pretty deep field with quite a few studs, I envision the pace being pretty honest. Because of this, I think Chelanga gets the advantage. If it does lag, however, it could really open up. I like the experience and star-power of this field over just about any other in the meet, so it should be really interesting.

But after all is said and done ... it’s Sam Chelanga. He could very well sweep the 3 and the 5. I’d be stupid not to pick him somewhere.

So there you have it.

Make sure to watch the races here on Flotrack and look for my recap of the women’s meet this Sunday. Enjoy the meet and remember...

Chris Berman hasn’t made a good pick in years. And he’s the Schwam.