by Kevin Liao

To quote the great American sportscaster Jim Nantz, the 10,000 meters at the Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational is indeed a tradition unlike any other.  The magic of Cobb Track at Stanford consistently produces multiple ‘A’ standard performances and resulted in the last two men’s and women’s American records in the 25-lap event.

Women's Race : Flanagan, Huddle & Kipyego Battle

More records may be broken this Sunday as a loaded women’s field will take to the track on Sunday evening. American record holders Shalane Flanagan and Molly Huddle will face off on the track for the first time since Huddle broke Flanagan’s 5k mark last summer. Flanagan won a bronze medal at the World Cross Country Championships on March 20 and enters Payton Jordan will tremendous confidence from that accomplishment. Huddle won the Mt. SAC 5k two weeks ago and will seek to improve upon her 10,000 personal best of 31:27. Flanagan’s American record of 30:22 run at the 2008 Olympic Games may be in jeopardy.

The remaining U.S. contingent includes three-time Olympian Jen Rhines. She appears to be making the climb back to the longer distances as she committed to run the New York City Marathon in November.  Alissa McKaig of Zap Fitness has experienced a breakout 2011 season, making the team for World Cross Country and running a 15:28 5,000 PR at Mt. SAC. Trailing McKaig at Mt. SAC was former George Washington All-American Megan Hogan. Now a member of Team USA Minnesota, Hogan has a 10k personal best of 32:34.

Oregon Track Club Elite’s Sally Kipyego is returning to the 10k after three years away from the event. Her personal best 4:06 over 1500 meters at the Oregon Relays indicates she is ready to improve upon her 10k PR of 31:25. Also look out for Kipyego’s Kenyan countrywoman Lineth Chepkurui, who has run 30:45 for a road 10k and 67:47 over the half marathon distance.

Picks:

Kevin Liao : The race will come down to a three-woman duel between Flanagan, Huddle, and Kipyego. Much like the 2008 Flanagan-Kim Smith matchup, expect Flanagan to grind out the pace over the last two kilometers since her kick isn’t as lethal as it once was. Her strength gained from her marathon training will be enough to get her the win. Look for big PB’s from Huddle and Kipyego as well. If the rabbit goes out in an adequate pace, the American record will definitely be under threat.

Paul Michel : With Sunday being the first day that Olympic 'A' Standards can be achieved, the race will go out on an honest pace.  Shalane, never afraid to lead, will take it out on 30:20-30:30 pace. Huddle and Kipyego will be lurking throughout. Huddle's scorching kick at Mt. Sac to defeat Jenny Simpson and Kipyego's 4:06 at Oregon Relays last week will be in the back of Flanagan's mind. Therefore, look for her to put the hammer down after about 6 or 7k and put it away for the win.

Men's Race : The Newcomer or the Veterans?

Chris Solinsky, the protagonist of last year’s 10k, is back in Palo Alto for the first time since his 26:59 American record, but will not be finishing the race. Instead, he will pace teammates Tim Nelson and Matt Tegenkamp in their attempts to hit the Olympic ‘A’ standard of 27:40. Nelson enters Sunday’s 10k with the fastest personal best of any American in the field and is coming off a 13^th place finish at the New York City Marathon last fall.

After years of speculation by message board trolls, Tegenkamp will make his long awaited debut at 10,000 meters. He has already run the ‘A’ standard in the 5k this season but is coming off a disappointing 1500 meter race at Mt. SAC two weeks ago.

A number of other top Americans will join the Schumacher crew in hopes of running fast ‘A’ standard times. Beijing Olympian Jorge Torres has made his way back to the track after a few years focusing on the marathon. He opened up at Mt. SAC with a runner-up finish in the 5000 meters.  Besting Torres in that race was McMillan Elite athlete Aaron Braun. The former Adams State All-American set a personal best of 13:27 in that race and will make his track 10k debut on Sunday. 

Bobby Curtis will also be back at Stanford on the heels of his 27:33 run a year ago. A few others to watch out for are Scott Bauhs (27:46 PR from 2008), Ben True (5^th at USA Cross Country, 10k debut), and Robert Cheseret (Stanford Invitational winner in 28:29).

Stanford typically attracts a top-notch international field and this year is no different.  French steeplechase specialist Bouabdellah Tahri will make his first venture into the 10,000 meter distance. Tahri has run 8:01 in the steeplechase and has a 13:11 5k personal best from this indoor season. Chris Thompson of Britain had his breakout 27:29 performance at last year’s meet and went on to win a bronze medal at the European Championships. 

Aussie Ben St. Lawrence surprised many by challenging Bernard Lagat for the win at the Melbourne Track Classic in early March on his way to a massive 5000 meter personal best of 13:10. He has run 28:05 for 10k but his great improvements so far in 2011 indicate his is capable of much better.  Yuki Sato, owner of a 27:38 personal best, leads a dynamic Japanese contingent that includes six sub-28 minute runners.  

Picks:

KL : Tegenkamp is the biggest name in the race, but I don’t think he can hang on to the long, grinding pace, much like he fell off the lead group at the USA Cross Country Championships. His teammate Tim Nelson, however, is my pick for the win. He has gained more strength with his fall marathon training and has shown his strong kick to win the Husky Classic 3k in February. Expect St. Lawrence and Tahri to run fast times under 27:30 and Americans Braun, Curtis, and Bauhs to hit the ‘A’ standard.

PM : I'll take Tegenkamp in an incredibly even field. There are about 8 to 10 guys here that will (on paper) be right around that 27:20-27:30 range. The race will go out honest, with Solinsky leading them through. Tegenkamp "only" ran 3:40 in the 1500 at Mt. Sac, but look for him to keep the leaders just close enough the last several kilometers, and kick for the win. American Aaron Braun is consistent, and with a 13:27 5k victory at Sac (in which he had to lead the last several laps) under his belt, look for him to be in the 27:30-27:40 range in his debut.