Some topics of debate will always remain as pure speculation. Even though there may be sufficient data and arguments within a debate, absolute answers sometimes cannot be found based on hypotheticals.

How fast could Jim Ryun been if he had trained in the present day (answer: faster)? Who would win at 650m, Mo Farah or Usain Bolt (answer: I actually don’t know)?

There are two returning girls who could easily be ranked as the number one runner going into the 2012 season. Both junior Sarah Baxter from Simi Valley High School in California and senior Erin Finn from West Bloomfield High School in Michigan have impressive running resumes, which makes the difference between the two negligible.

Below are the races and respective places for both Baxter and Finn for the 2011 season:


Sarah Baxter

Race	Place	Time	Date
NXN Nationals	1	17:38.0	12/3/11
CA States Championships - Division II	1	17:07.4	11/26/11
CA Southern Section Championships	1	16:44.0	11/19/11
CIF Southern Section Prelims	1	16:09.0	11/12/11
Marmonte League Championship	1	17:03.05	11/3/11
Ventura County Championship	1	17:41.07	10/28/11
Mt SAC Invitational	1	16:59.0	10/22/11

 

 

Erin Finn

Race	Place	Time	Date
Great Edinburgh 4K	7	15:30.0	1/7/2012
Foot Locker Finals	2	17:23.9	12/10/11
Foot Locker Midwest	3	17:34.0	11/26/11
Michigan States XC Championship	1	17:22.6	11/5/11
Michigan Division 1 - Region 7	1	17:59.2	10/29/11
OAA League White	1	17:34.1	10/21/11
Oxford Invitational	1	18:01.7	10/14/11
Oakland County Championships	1	17:41.11	10/8/11
Waterford Mott Classic	1	18:13.3	9/31/11
Linden Classic	1	17:26.44	9/24/11
MSU/Nike Spartan Invitational	1	17:16.0	9/16/11
West Bloomfield Invitational	1	18:05.9	9/10/11

Each athlete has the potential to be the top cross country runner this season. To simplify the analysis of both athletes, one can examine the points of interest via the binary number system of zeros and ones.


0 (loses)

Sarah Baxter has never lost a high school cross country race. Over the last two years, she has claimed two California State Championships and one NXN title as she did not run NXN freshman year. With the exception of taking second at the CIF Southern Section Division 2 1600m with a time of 4:49.33, she would have gone undefeated during the outdoor season as well. She also posted a personal best and US #1 3200m team of 10:08.11 at the Arcadia Invite (her 9:31.89 3000m time en route was also the US #1 time).


1 (National Record)

She may have taken second at the Foot Locker National Championships in December, but there was no question of who was the best girls 5000m runner during the past indoor season. Finn ran the U.S. National Indoor High School record at 5000m at New Balance Indoor Nationals with a time of 16:19.69. The previous time of 16:35.15 was set by now Columbia standout Waverly Neer the prior year.

Finn also ran personal bests of 4:47.08 for the mile and 10:18.82 for two miles. She took eighth in the 5000m at the U.S. Junior Nationals with a time of 16:58.77.

0 (times they’ve raced each other)

It would be simple to select the top girls cross country runner if they had raced each other once last season or even run the same course at some point. But Baxter and Finn have not raced each other once in cross country. Baxter opted to run NXN last year while Finn has chosen FL in the past years.

This is in no way an attack on the racing schedule of either runner. It’s rare that runners from Michigan and California cross paths except for national championships.

Perhaps if there were only one national championship meet for both teams and individuals then this would be a moot point. Then again, the dead horse may have already been beaten to a pulp over over the debate between Nike Cross Nationals and Foot Locker Finals.

The fact that two of the best runners in the country do not race each other is hurting the sport. Just as people clamor and complain over Usain Bolt and Yohan Blake not racing each other at every Diamond League Meeting, it would finally settle the debate between the two girls if they were to both toe the line at the same meet.

There is a possibility that both Baxter and Finn will be national champions when the season comes to an end this fall. If that would occur, the speculation and debate over who would beat who will remain. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it would be fantastic to see the two go head to head.