IAAF World Championships in Athletics Moscow 2013 - Results Photos UpdatesAug 8, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Martinez and Montano are medal picks in the 800m? Pinch me
Martinez and Montano are medal picks in the 800m? Pinch me
For the second day in a row, we’re going to write that an American has a chance at a gold medal in the 800m. Is this the real life, is this just [my IAAF] fantasy [league]?
The odds on the men’s side of a podium finish from either Nick Symmonds or Duane Solomon are very good. The odds of a gold medal aren’t bad, either. A combination of unfortunate withdrawals and the fact that the two are close to the best form of their running careers makes it seem like the 16-year drought of an American taking home a medal in the 800m may come to a flash flood end.
The parallels between the American men and women are uncanny. Though what makes the women’s 800m more impressive (historically speaking) is that since its inaugural meeting in 1983, no American female has ever won a World Championship medal. The U.S. has won three Olympic 800m medals (gold in ’68, silver in ’84, and bronze in ’88), but this’ll be a first. We think it’ll come from someone who will be at their first international championship, too.
The Express Train
This goes against almost everything I believe in when it comes to predictions, so bear with me here. I’m choosing Brenda Martinez to not only make the podium, but to win gold.
The whole year, we thought Martinez was a 1500m runner. After her road mile win in Boston, she said she was a miler. After her second place in the 800m at the Prefontaine Classic, she said she was a miler.
Then, right before USAs, she declared herself an 800m runner. Why the change of heart?
We had our own suspicions, which actually were confirmed after USAs. Though we considered B-Mart a miler, she ranked better on the world list in the 800m. Before the Diamond League series went into full swing, she sat in the second position (she’s now fourth) in the world. In the 1500m, she’s currently seventh.
Still, we didn’t believe it. Then we considered it from Martinez’s perspective - it’s not about being “better” at an event, it’s about having better odds.
If you use the IAAF Scoring Table to compare her 1:58.18 personal best (from this season) to her 4:00.94 personal best (also from this season), the 1500m is way better. But if you were to ask me, “Which event gives her a better shot at coming back from Moscow with a medal,” it’s the 800m.
In each of Martinez’ two-lap races this year, the tactics have been similar. Go out easy, make a big move on the backstretch, and kick for home. It worked at RE:Run and in London, but those were more exhibitions for Martinez. Her real challenges came at Prefontaine and USAs.
The trouble with Martinez is that she subscribes to the pre-2013 Nick Symmonds Newsletter. She reserves her big kick for fast and lethal finishes, but has to conserve energy in the first 550m. Sometimes, the gap between her and the front is too big for the real estate of the event. She’s moving the fastest, but soon run out of room.
That was the case at Prefontaine, where Francine Niyonsaba held on for the win and a world leading time of 1:56.72. Martinez was second in 1:58.18. At 600m, the gap was simply too much for Martinez.
Martinez charging, Montano fading, and a big ol' gap in the middle.
The good news for Martinez is that Niyonsaba has withdrawn from the World Championships with an injury. The bad news is that there’s another front-runner who might build an insurmountable gap when the field turns for home in Moscow.
Edit: Almost forgot to include this tweet (for posterity and awesomeness).
Flower Power
If Alysia Montano was going to make the jump to the podium, there’s no better year than this one.
For the last two years, the five-time U.S. champion has been close to a medal. She finished fifth at the ’11 Daegu World Championships and fourth at the London Olympics. There’s a reason for why she’ll once again move up an incremental spot in the upcoming final, but it may not be gold. It all depends if she's healthy.
In Des Moines, Montano ran her usual race and ran hard from the gun. A 56.79 first lap gave her a ~25m lead over the rest of the tightly bunched field.
Montano is the blur on the right, by the way.
Martinez was coming all the time, but Montano held on for the win. We thought that Martinez was running simply to secure her spot on the team, but I guess we’ll never know.
Despite her pedigree, we’re wary to pick Montano for the win. She DNF’d her last race, which isn’t the best way to head into the championships. Still, her race prior to that one was her best one of the season. In Paris, Montano took third in a season’s best 1:57.75.
In that race, Montano went with the rabbit and had daylight between her and the leader of the chase pack, Niyonsaba.
Montano would hold onto her lead until about 30m from the finish line. Niyonsaba would take the win (1:57.26), but Montano didn’t fade too terribly. She was challenged all the way to the line by Malika Akkaoui, who took second in 1:57.64. Montano settled for third.
This was a much better showing than in Eugene, where she faded hard from first to fourth (1:59.43). So with Niyonsaba gone and multiple strong races against Martinez, why aren’t we picking her?
Montano subscribes to the nail-biting, but fearless Johnny Gray Newsletter. Every race, Montano probably says to herself, “Come catch me.” Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. That’s basically the case with Gray’s athlete, Duane Solomon.
So for the same reason we didn’t pick Solomon to win the men’s race, we’re not picking Montano to win the women’s one.
Unless you’re the best in the world (see: David Rudisha, Alberto Juantorena, etc.), playing “catch me if you can” is a risky wager on the world stage.
But let’s face it - Montano is a defender of the front-running faith. We love watching it. But with Niyonsaba not in the race, Montano could tweak her tactics and just run for position, not time. As Sam Fayyaz said in reference to one key member of the Spanish national team, "zealots rarely do well as innovators.” If Montano goes out slower, then she’ll definitely medal. If she runs an uncharacteristic race to perfection, it might be gold.
There are non-Americans in the race and they’re definitely contenders
Though we think Martinez may take gold, it’s not because we think she’s the best 800m in the field. That title goes to the reigning World and Olympic champion, Mariya Savinova.
If Leo Manzano is the king of showing up up when it counts, then Savinova is the queen and prime minister.
When she won gold in Daegu, it was also a season’s best of 1:55.87. When she won in London, she ran 1:56.19. Also a seasonal best. She’ll be on her home soil in Russia, but we’re wary to pick her for a third consecutive title.
In 2011, she raced twelve times (six 800s) before the World Championships and had run a seasonal best of 1:56.95.
In 2012, she raced six times (four 800s) before the Olympic Games and had a seasonal best of 1:57.42.
Those were both world leading marks for the whole year.
In 2013, she’s only raced twice (two 800s) before Moscow and has run a seasonal best of 1:58.75. Is she on the decline or injured? We couldn’t find any news on either, so we’ll assume she’s playing it extra safe to ensure a gold in her home country.
The other, and possibly more viable threat, is Akkaoui. The 25-year-old Moroccan has to be riding high after beating Montano in Paris and finishing right behind the now-injured Niyonsaba. It’s also been a dream season for her.
Before the 800m in Paris, Akkaoui’s personal best was 1:59.54. She ran 1:57.64 to take second. Then two days later, she won a 1500m in Sotteville-les-Rouen in 4:04.97, which was 0.01 off her personal best from 2011. That's a well-timed peak.
If you like to pick middle-distance runners who are riding a wave of momentum into the championship (and want to be different than your friends and not choose Martinez), then pick Akkaoui. If you want to choose based on credentials, pick Savinova.
Prediction
It really depends on the race. If Martinez puts herself in the mix earlier in the race, then we’ll take her. If Montano runs more conservative, then she’s our pick. Savinova could either show up and absolutely destroy everyone or run her first mediocre final in two years.
We’ll select one hypothetical scenario and say it’ll be Martinez, Savinova, and Montano holding off Akkaoui. Is this real life?
Edit and Fun Fact: Montano and Martinez have only squared off five times, ever. Montano leads three to two. Will Martinez force a rubber match in Moscow?
The odds on the men’s side of a podium finish from either Nick Symmonds or Duane Solomon are very good. The odds of a gold medal aren’t bad, either. A combination of unfortunate withdrawals and the fact that the two are close to the best form of their running careers makes it seem like the 16-year drought of an American taking home a medal in the 800m may come to a flash flood end.
The parallels between the American men and women are uncanny. Though what makes the women’s 800m more impressive (historically speaking) is that since its inaugural meeting in 1983, no American female has ever won a World Championship medal. The U.S. has won three Olympic 800m medals (gold in ’68, silver in ’84, and bronze in ’88), but this’ll be a first. We think it’ll come from someone who will be at their first international championship, too.
The Express Train
This goes against almost everything I believe in when it comes to predictions, so bear with me here. I’m choosing Brenda Martinez to not only make the podium, but to win gold.
The whole year, we thought Martinez was a 1500m runner. After her road mile win in Boston, she said she was a miler. After her second place in the 800m at the Prefontaine Classic, she said she was a miler.
Then, right before USAs, she declared herself an 800m runner. Why the change of heart?
We had our own suspicions, which actually were confirmed after USAs. Though we considered B-Mart a miler, she ranked better on the world list in the 800m. Before the Diamond League series went into full swing, she sat in the second position (she’s now fourth) in the world. In the 1500m, she’s currently seventh.
Still, we didn’t believe it. Then we considered it from Martinez’s perspective - it’s not about being “better” at an event, it’s about having better odds.
If you use the IAAF Scoring Table to compare her 1:58.18 personal best (from this season) to her 4:00.94 personal best (also from this season), the 1500m is way better. But if you were to ask me, “Which event gives her a better shot at coming back from Moscow with a medal,” it’s the 800m.
| Time |
Meet |
Place |
Date |
| 1:59.59 | RE:Run | 1st | May 3 |
| 1:58.18 | Prefontaine | 2nd | June 1 |
| 1:58.78 | USAs | 2nd | June 23 |
| 1:58.19 | London | 1st | Jul 26 |
In each of Martinez’ two-lap races this year, the tactics have been similar. Go out easy, make a big move on the backstretch, and kick for home. It worked at RE:Run and in London, but those were more exhibitions for Martinez. Her real challenges came at Prefontaine and USAs.
The trouble with Martinez is that she subscribes to the pre-2013 Nick Symmonds Newsletter. She reserves her big kick for fast and lethal finishes, but has to conserve energy in the first 550m. Sometimes, the gap between her and the front is too big for the real estate of the event. She’s moving the fastest, but soon run out of room.
That was the case at Prefontaine, where Francine Niyonsaba held on for the win and a world leading time of 1:56.72. Martinez was second in 1:58.18. At 600m, the gap was simply too much for Martinez.
Martinez charging, Montano fading, and a big ol' gap in the middle.
The good news for Martinez is that Niyonsaba has withdrawn from the World Championships with an injury. The bad news is that there’s another front-runner who might build an insurmountable gap when the field turns for home in Moscow.
Edit: Almost forgot to include this tweet (for posterity and awesomeness).
My workouts after Pre Classic 800 meters, leading up to 2013 USA Championships. @NBRunning #teamnb pic.twitter.com/PgJPoNwRz8
— Brenda Martinez (@bmartrun) June 27, 2013
Flower Power
If Alysia Montano was going to make the jump to the podium, there’s no better year than this one.
For the last two years, the five-time U.S. champion has been close to a medal. She finished fifth at the ’11 Daegu World Championships and fourth at the London Olympics. There’s a reason for why she’ll once again move up an incremental spot in the upcoming final, but it may not be gold. It all depends if she's healthy.
In Des Moines, Montano ran her usual race and ran hard from the gun. A 56.79 first lap gave her a ~25m lead over the rest of the tightly bunched field.
Montano is the blur on the right, by the way.
Martinez was coming all the time, but Montano held on for the win. We thought that Martinez was running simply to secure her spot on the team, but I guess we’ll never know.
Despite her pedigree, we’re wary to pick Montano for the win. She DNF’d her last race, which isn’t the best way to head into the championships. Still, her race prior to that one was her best one of the season. In Paris, Montano took third in a season’s best 1:57.75.
In that race, Montano went with the rabbit and had daylight between her and the leader of the chase pack, Niyonsaba.
Montano would hold onto her lead until about 30m from the finish line. Niyonsaba would take the win (1:57.26), but Montano didn’t fade too terribly. She was challenged all the way to the line by Malika Akkaoui, who took second in 1:57.64. Montano settled for third.
This was a much better showing than in Eugene, where she faded hard from first to fourth (1:59.43). So with Niyonsaba gone and multiple strong races against Martinez, why aren’t we picking her?
Montano subscribes to the nail-biting, but fearless Johnny Gray Newsletter. Every race, Montano probably says to herself, “Come catch me.” Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. That’s basically the case with Gray’s athlete, Duane Solomon.
So for the same reason we didn’t pick Solomon to win the men’s race, we’re not picking Montano to win the women’s one.
Unless you’re the best in the world (see: David Rudisha, Alberto Juantorena, etc.), playing “catch me if you can” is a risky wager on the world stage.
But let’s face it - Montano is a defender of the front-running faith. We love watching it. But with Niyonsaba not in the race, Montano could tweak her tactics and just run for position, not time. As Sam Fayyaz said in reference to one key member of the Spanish national team, "zealots rarely do well as innovators.” If Montano goes out slower, then she’ll definitely medal. If she runs an uncharacteristic race to perfection, it might be gold.
There are non-Americans in the race and they’re definitely contenders
Though we think Martinez may take gold, it’s not because we think she’s the best 800m in the field. That title goes to the reigning World and Olympic champion, Mariya Savinova.
If Leo Manzano is the king of showing up up when it counts, then Savinova is the queen and prime minister.
When she won gold in Daegu, it was also a season’s best of 1:55.87. When she won in London, she ran 1:56.19. Also a seasonal best. She’ll be on her home soil in Russia, but we’re wary to pick her for a third consecutive title.
In 2011, she raced twelve times (six 800s) before the World Championships and had run a seasonal best of 1:56.95.
In 2012, she raced six times (four 800s) before the Olympic Games and had a seasonal best of 1:57.42.
Those were both world leading marks for the whole year.
In 2013, she’s only raced twice (two 800s) before Moscow and has run a seasonal best of 1:58.75. Is she on the decline or injured? We couldn’t find any news on either, so we’ll assume she’s playing it extra safe to ensure a gold in her home country.
The other, and possibly more viable threat, is Akkaoui. The 25-year-old Moroccan has to be riding high after beating Montano in Paris and finishing right behind the now-injured Niyonsaba. It’s also been a dream season for her.
Before the 800m in Paris, Akkaoui’s personal best was 1:59.54. She ran 1:57.64 to take second. Then two days later, she won a 1500m in Sotteville-les-Rouen in 4:04.97, which was 0.01 off her personal best from 2011. That's a well-timed peak.
If you like to pick middle-distance runners who are riding a wave of momentum into the championship (and want to be different than your friends and not choose Martinez), then pick Akkaoui. If you want to choose based on credentials, pick Savinova.
Prediction
It really depends on the race. If Martinez puts herself in the mix earlier in the race, then we’ll take her. If Montano runs more conservative, then she’s our pick. Savinova could either show up and absolutely destroy everyone or run her first mediocre final in two years.
We’ll select one hypothetical scenario and say it’ll be Martinez, Savinova, and Montano holding off Akkaoui. Is this real life?
Edit and Fun Fact: Montano and Martinez have only squared off five times, ever. Montano leads three to two. Will Martinez force a rubber match in Moscow?