IAAF World Championships in Athletics Moscow 2013 - Results Photos Updates

Manzano, Centrowitz, and the Moscow 1500m preview

Aug 9, 2013 by Jimmy Stevenson

The question many, if not all of us have, is can Leo Manzano or Matt Centrowitz get another medal in the 1,500m? Even more thrilling, can they both leave Russia with some hardware?

Nick Symmonds and Duane Solomon have a legitimate chance to accomplish that feat, but do America’s finest metric milers as well?

Let’s take a look.

Familiarity

Centrowitz won bronze in Daegu (2011) and Leo of course came from behind to snag a silver at the London Olympics, making him the first American to get an Olympic medal in the 1,500m since the living legend Jim Ryun in 1968. Centrowitz was fourth in the Olympics, only .04 of a second out of a medal.

A lot can change in one year

On the plus side for the Americans, the Olympic gold medalist Taoufik Makhloufi (Algeria) is out with a viral infection.

Some not so good news for this duo, the Kenyan team, who ran terribly in London, are back and are in incredible form. Namely, Asbel Kiprop.

Kiprop, who finished last in the London Olympic final, is looking better than ever. The 2008 Olympic Champ and 2011 World Champion is coming off a personal best of 3:27.72 from Monaco where he set the world leading time and became the fourth fastest 1,500m runner ever.

The fourth person in that race was Bethwell Birgen who went 3:30.77. Throw in Silas Kiplagat (3:49.49 mile at Pre) and Nixon Chepseba (3:50.95 mile in Oslo) and that is a daunting team.

On paper, no Americans look good to medal. Leo is the 15^th fastest person this year (3:33.14, Paris) and Centrowitz is the 22^nd (3:33.58, Monaco). That doesn’t sound that promising, but before London, around 60 people ran a faster than both of them that season. Result at the Olympics – silver medal and fourth place.

I could continue to crunch numbers, spit out some data and draw a conclusion on Leo’s chances to repeat his historic London performance, but after talking with Leo’s coach, Ryan Ponsonby, I have a renewed perspective on Leo “The Lion” Manzano.

Entering the U. S. Championships, there was a lot of question marks surrounding Leo and his chances to make the world team. The same questions probably existed about his ability to succeed at the Olympics.

When we talked to Ponsonby during Leo’s workout a few days after USAs he said, “People try and get these patterns like, ‘Oh he ran four. He always does well when he runs four minutes.’ That’s not it at all. He’ll tell you himself. It’s about getting your ass kicked and then coming back.”

We all know Leo has gotten a beaten on numerous occasions, but like Coach Ponsonby said, he shows up when it matters - poised and confident. His eight consecutive top three performances at USA Outdoor Championships in the 1,500m and his silver medal go to show that as true.

“You have to take all those, whether you call them failures or whatever they may be, and use that as fuel for the fire and just turn all that negativity into something positive,” said Leo.

If one thing is for sure, Leo is the king at that. Forget the numbers, forget the stats. I agree with Ponsonby, you can’t really track this guy and find those patterns.

Rather a better way to gauge Leo’s success is to find out if he has enough fuel for his fire. Maybe his 3:44.59 last place finish in Monaco will be just enough.

While Monaco might have been Leo’s slowest race of the year, it was Centrowitz’s fastest (3:33.58), yet it still resulted in an eighth place finish and a lot of those guys that beat him will be in Moscow. He also DNF’d in Paris and got 16^th in the mile at London.

For someone who looked so good at USAs, Centrowitz shows signs of falling apart. The difference between Leo and Centro is that we don’t have much to compare off of to figure out if Centro has the ability to bounce back from awful performances like Leo does. Again, on paper things don’t look that great for the young “whippersnapper,” as teammate Dathan Ritzenhein called him.

Another intangible: Centro’s confidence.

As revealed through The Program: Nike Oregon Project Episode 4, Centro has what appears to be unwavering confidence. So despite the competitive field and his couple recent difficult races, for all we know Centro might still be approaching this race with the expectation that he can win a medal.

He certainly better be because without that confidence, Centro can kiss a medal goodbye. This field has no intentions of giving anyone anything on a silver (gold or bronze) platter.

When we were shooting The Program episode with Centro he said, “Each year I’m just going to be racing the same and just keep inching my way closer until I eventually get the gold medal.”

If he wants that medal this year, he’s going to have to do much more than inch his way there. Centro and Leo are going to need to run a smart, strategic race. And with the way the World Championships of recent years have been run, we should see a slow pace that could fall right into the hands of these guys.

Prediction

If we don't see that slower pace in the final, count on Kiprop for the gold. He is just too dominant this year to have his spot as the favorite taken away from him. Kiplagat is our pick for the silver. Although he hasn't dropped a blazing time like Kiprop's 3:27, Kiplagat awarded Kiprop his only two loses of the season at the Prefontaine Classic and the Kenyan Trials. If there is one person Kiprop is afraid of it is fellow countryman Kiplagat.

The bronze will be awarded to one of the Americans or youngster Ayanleh Souleiman of Djibouti. The 20-year-old has dropped two 3:32 mids this season as well as three 3:50 full miles. Despite being the youngest contender in the field, he has had the most consistent season.