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Bank of America Chicago Marathon 2013

Chicago Marathon Men's Preview: Four safe bets, four wildcards, and one Ritz

Chicago Marathon Men's Preview: Four safe bets, four wildcards, and one Ritz

Oct 10, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Chicago Marathon Men's Preview: Four safe bets, four wildcards, and one Ritz
Sometimes, I wonder what it’s like to be a major marathon director. I imagine running a marathon is hard, but I also imagine that trying to assemble a field better than the year prior is a few steps below in difficulty. With what happened last year at the Chicago Marathon, Race Director Carey Pinkowski had his work cut out for him.

"It will be hard to top last year when the top three men all broke the previous course record and the women's race was decided by a single second, but this is the field that can do it," said Pinkowski.

Pinkowski is referring to the 2012 race across the Windy City that was mind-boggling quick. Not only did the Ethiopian trio of Tsegaye Kebede, Feyisa Lilesa, Tilahun Regassa all break Moses Mosop’s previous course record of 2:05:37 (2011), but the “fastest finish by place” was set all the way from first through tenth.

Fastest finishers by place at the Chicago Marathon
Place
 Name
 Time
1st
 Tsegaye Kebede (ETH)
 2:04:38
2nd
 Feyisa Lilesa  (ETH)
 2:04:52
3rd
 Tilahun Regassa (ETH)
 2:05:27
4th
 Sammy Kitwara (KEN)
 2:05:54
5th
 Wesley Korir (KEN)
 2:06:13
6th
 Bernard Kipyego (KEN)
 2:06:40
7th
 Samuel Ndungu (KEN)
 2:07:26
8th
 Dadi Yami (ETH)
 2:07:43
9th
 Dathan Ritzenhein (USA)
 2:07:47
10th
 Shami Dawit (ETH)
 2:08:39

I imagine Pinkowski and his team sat down after all of the celebratory champagne bottles were thrown away to discuss this year’s race--they probably all looked at each other and said, “Now what?”

Bringing back two previous champions and assembling a field that can challenge Kebede’s 2:04:38 record was a pretty good course of action.

We break down the 2013 Chicago Marathon men’s elite race into three groups. We’ll give you four safe bets, four wildcards, and explain why we’re including the lone American hope.

Four Safe Bets

If you’re not looking to make any outrageous picks for who’ll win on Sunday, these four are solid choices.

Emmanuel Mutai
Personal Records
10k - 28:21.14 (Hengelo, 2006)
Half Marathon - 59:52 (South Shields, 2011)
Marathon - 2:04:40 (London, 2011)

When trying to predict marathons, we’ll usually use the results from London as a base indicator. After winning the event in 2011 (2:04:40) and fading to seventh in 2012 (2:08:01), Mutai came back to finish second (2:06:33) in 2013 behind last year’s Chicago champion Tsegaye Kebede.

The good news for Mutai is that Kebede is not back to defend his crown. The more interesting news is that Mutai’s buildup this year is eerily similar to Kebede’s progression that lead him to cross the line in a course record time last year.

Prior to his ’12 win, Kebede had won three races that year. He had finished tenth at the RAK Half Marathon (62:34) in February; third at the London Marathon (2:06:52) in April; and third at the Manchester Road 10k (27:56) in May. Mutai’s ’13 season is below.
2013 Season


Race Time Place Date
RAK Half Marathon 61:32 11th Feb 15
London Marathon 2:06:33 2nd April 21
Cape Elizabeth 10k 28:22 3rd Aug 4
Falmouth Road Race 32:20 3rd Aug 11

Does Mutai have what it takes to replicate Kebede’s historic run? The statistics look too good to be true, but because of the weather (more on that below), we don’t think the record will fall. The victory, on the other hand, looks probable.

Moses Mosop
Personal Records
5k - 12:54.46 (Paris, 2006)
10k - 26:49.55 (Hengelo, 2007)
30k (track) - 1:26:47.40 (Prefontainte, 2011, WR)
Half Marathon - 59:20 (Milan, 2010)
Marathon - 2:03:06 (Boston, 2011)

It’s hard to not choose Mosop. The 2011 Chicago champion has run three marathons, never finished lower than third, and has never run slower than 2:05:37. Plus, he has some solid track speed that's listed above. His biggest selling point is his 2:03:06 win at ’11 Boston. The always-helpful Chicago Media Guide writes, “Despite never having run a marathon prior to Boston in 2011, Mosop finished second in the fastest marathon race ever run...”

Why isn’t he our obvious choice? We’re not sure of his current fitness as he’s only raced twice in the last two years.

We saw Mosop in New York last fall, but he and everyone else didn’t get the chance to run because of event’s cancellation due to Hurricane Sandy. In 2012, Mosop ran the Paris Half Marathon (he finished sixth in 62:00) in March and the Rotterdam Marathon (he finished third in 2:05:03) in April.

Since then, nothing. Even though there isn't a lot of data on him, he might be wearing his "Stop Mosop" shirt to the Chicago press conference.
2012 Season


Race Time Place Date
Paris Half Marathon 62:00 6th Mar 4
Rotterdam Marathon 2:05:03 3rd Apr 15

Ayele Abshero
Personal Records
5k - 13:11.38 (Hengelo, 2009)
10k - 27:48.84 (Prefontaine, 2011)
Half Marathon - 59:42 (Den Haag, 2011)
Marathon - 2:04:23 (Dubai, 2012)

If you want to go with someone a bit younger but a little more wily, then Ethiopia’s Abshero is your choice. The 22-year old made his marathon debut last January in Dubai when he ran the then-fastest debut in history with a 2:04:23 win. The Media Guide goes on to say that “his time made him the youngest marathoner to break 2:05, the fastest-ever 21-year old, and he currently ranks as history’s seventh fastest marathoner.”

Note: He now sits eighth after this year’s Berlin Marathon.
Back to our argument about using the London Marathon as a basis for predicting other marathons. Who finished right behind Mutai in 2:06:57? Abshero.

One last coincidence. We said that Abshero used to have the fastest-marathon debut in history and currently sits at eighth all-time. Who took his record and is one spot in front of him on the all-time list?
2013 Season


Race Time Place Date
London Marathon 2:06:57 3rd Apr 21

Dennis Kimetto
Personal Records
Half Marathon - 59:14 (Berlin, 2012)
Marathon - 2:04:16 (Berlin, 2012)

Here sits Kimetto. In his debut at the distance, Kimetto finished runner-up to Geoffrey Mutai (the unofficial fastest of all-time) at the Berlin Marathon. Kimetto’s 2:04:16 finish was good enough to just take away Abshero’s debut record and move Kimetto to what is now seventh all-time.

This year, Kimetto has been solid. He set a course record at the 2013 Tokyo Marathon (2:06:50), which was his second marathon ever. He now takes a third shot at the distance and has a good of a chance to take the win as he did in the other three.
2013 Season


Race
 Time
 Place
 Date
Tokyo Marathon 2:06:50 1st Feb 24
Schortens 10M 47:32 2nd Aug 17

Those are the four fastest in the field (note: Tilahun Regassa isn’t running). Now we’ll give you four contenders with a lot of upside, but who also have a bit of risk.


Four Wildcards

Sammy Kitwara
Personal Records
5k - 13:34.0hA (Nairobi, 2008)
10k - 27:44.46A (Nairobi, 2009)
Half Marathon - 58:48 (Philadelphia, 2011)
Marathon - 2:05:54 (Chicago, 2012)

The fifth fastest half marathoner of all-time (58:48 from the ’11 Philadelphia Half) made his marathon debut (how many times will we write this phrase...) last year in Chicago. His time of 2:05:54 would have won almost any of the Chicago races between 2000 and 2010 and would have been #3 all-time on the course, but because he ran in a historically fast year, he finished fourth overall. Fancy that.

Kitwara is back this year and should be considered as a potential champion. However, the main reason he’s in this second group of picks is because his buildup has not been up to the level as the previous four. As you can see below, Kitwara has run three road 10Ks, one half marathon, and one marathon.

That being said, he ran three road 10Ks last year, too. Does that mean he’s ready for a fast time? Perhaps. Does that mean he’s ready to challenge for the win? Maybe, but that’s why he’s a wildcard.
2013 Season


Race
 Time
 Place
 Date
Egmond Half 62:25 6th Jan 13
World's Best 10k 28:42 1st Feb 24
Rotterdam Marathon 2:07:22 3rd Apr 14
Toa Baja 10k 29:16A 2nd May 26
Peachtree 10k 28:17 4th Jul 4

Fun Fact: According to the Media Guide, “Kitwara didn’t take up competitive running until 2007, when he realized that his family needed additional financial assistance. Three years later, he was at a world-class level.”

Atsedu Tsegay
Personal Records
5k - 13:51.0hA (Addis Ababa, 2011)
10k - 27:28.11 (Sollentuna, 2013)
Half Marathon - 58:47 (Prague, 2012 NR)

Kitwara isn’t the only competitor on the half marathon all-time list to appear in Chicago. Similar to a bunch of others already listed, the 21-year old Tsegay is also making his marathon debut this Sunday in Chicago.

Last year, he set the Prague Half Marathon course record with a winning time of 58:47. That was Ethiopia’s national record for the half, the fastest time in 2012, and the fifth fastest of all-time.

Still, there’s someone higher on that list that has left me waiting and questioning my marathon predictions for a number of years.
2013 Season


Race
 Time
 Place
 Date
World's Best 10k 29:50 10th Feb 24
Folksam 10k 27:28.11 5th Jun 27
Lille Half 61:31 4th Sep 1

Zersenay Tadese
Personal Records
5k - 12:59.27 (Rome, 2006)
10k - 26:37.25 (Brussels, 2006)
Half Marathon - 58:23 (Lisbon, 2010 WR)
Marathon - 2:10:41 (London, 2012)

The curious case of the great Tadese. The greatest half marathoner of all-time has the top two fastest marks at the distance (58:30 in ’11 Lisbon and 58:23 in ’10 Lisbon), six world titles, three world championship silvers (XC Long in 2005, 10k in 2009, half marathon in 2010), an Olympic bronze medal (10k in 2004), and some incredible marks at shorter distances.

But Tadese’s three attempts at 26.2 miles have all resulted in failure. He’s run the London Marathon three times and things haven’t been good. His debut in 2009 resulted in a DNF, 2010 was a seventh place finish in 2:12:03, and 2012 was a 14th place finish in 2:10:41.

Tadese is an interesting case because he seems to have all the right tools for long distances, but not the longest distance. Oddly enough, we can’t find any result of him running a 1500m, which according to Toni Reavis, may actually be the problem.

Still, if Tadese can finally put together all of the right pieces, he may have the best payout here. On the other hand, it has been a while since those record runs and Tadese hasn't been super impressive this year. It's your choice.
2013 Season


Race Time Place Date
World's Best 10k 29:08 7th Feb 24
Praha Half 60:10 1st Apr 6
Gifu Half 60:31 1st May 19

Micah Kogo
Personal Records
5k - 13:00.77 (Stockholm, 2006)
10k - 26:35.63 (Brussels, 2006)
10k Road - 27:01 (Brunssum, 2009 former WR)
Half Marathon - 59:07 (South Shields, 2012)
Marathon - 2:10.27 (Boston, 2013)

This is the last time I’m going to write the “D” word in this preview. Kogo made his marathon debut last spring in Boston, where he lost out in a sprint finish to Ethiopia’s Lelisa Desisa. Kogo’s runner-up time of 2:10:27 isn’t up to par of what he’s run for other shorter events, but it was his debut and it was a peculiar race.

Note: If it’s any consolation, Desisa did finish second at Chicago last year in 2:04:52.

Between the Boston Marathon and Chicago, Kogo has run only two races. The first was a win at the Cape Elizabeth 10k in 28:04. His fellow countryman and Chicago competitor Emmanual Mutai was third in that race (see his profile above), but we’re not about to put a road 10k title in the same discussion as a potential marathon win.

Kogo is similar to Tadese, but without any big failures. He certainly has the wheels to go with a faster pace, but we won’t know for sure until Sunday. I would have put Kogo in the first category of “safe bets,” but without a fast marathon to his name, I don’t know if the bookmakers would have given him the same odds.

Heck, I’m almost inclined to pick him to win.
2013 Season


Race Time Place Date
Boston Marathon 2:10:27 2nd Apr 15
Cape Elizabeth 10k 28:04 1st Aug 4
Falmouth Road Race 32:10 1st Aug 11

The Lone American
Read about Ritz and the Americans here

This year has been Ritz’ rebirth. Whenever he was on the track, Ritz ran aggressively and with the confidence that we hadn’t seen since his breakout season in 2009. He’s been healthy for two years, already had a huge performance in the marathon that saw him rise to #3 all-time on the American list, and has been planning his return to Chicago for almost an entire year.

What’s there to lose?

Nothing, really. Ritz told Flotrack that he plans to go out between 62:45 and 63:00, which would put him with the leaders since the front pack went out in 62:54 last year. We’re not trying to imply that Ritz will put himself in the mix, so we’ll let the title of this Runner’s World article speak for itself:

“Ritzenhein Plans to Run with Leaders at Chicago Marathon”

We like it. We like it a lot. And even though we don’t think Ritz has a chance to win, he’ll get some help from the weather. According to Weather Underground, the forecast for Sunday morning doesn’t look too conducive to running fast.




We know that Ritz has performed well in the heat, so any sort of acclimation he’s done coupled with the fact that it may be a slower race than last year makes this Sunday seem more favorable to the American. The win may be a pipe dream, but Ritz is putting his faith in the second half of the race, so we’ll put a little bit of faith in Ritz.

Prediction

I’ll always bet according to projections. If you want to be incredibly bold, take Zersenay Tadese. If you want to make an interesting pick, take Micah Kogo. If you want to play it safe, pick any of the first four listed above. I'm going to take Emmanuel Mutai for the win, but feel free to make your own informed decision.

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