ACC Cross Country Championships 2013Oct 30, 2013 by FloTrack Staff
Women's ACC Preview: Curses, the fall from grace, and rising youngsters
Women's ACC Preview: Curses, the fall from grace, and rising youngsters
A curse, a fall from grace, and rising young stars. The women’s ACC Cross Country Championship has so much drama, its description could probably double for the SparkNotes version of Macbeth.
The build-up for this weekend’s showdown at Kernerville’s Beeson Park is much different than what we anticipated preseason. Back in August when Duke was ranked #4 and Florida State sat at #2, we thought that this would be the women’s conference meet to end all conference meets.
It would be a battle between a team that always seems to be at the top and a young squad on the rise. Though the former is still true, the latter is not. But oddly enough, even with all of the small disasters, another young team has stepped up to the challenge. And won’t you believe it, but the results will still be close.
Click here for the ACC individual and team projections
Women’s Team: Florida State, but not by as much as you would think
The curse
“[FSU] has emerged from Pre-Nationals as the top-ranked team in the country in each of the past two seasons, but one thing Florida State hasn’t done during this three-year stretch is parlay its Pre-National title into an NCAA National Championship,” wrote USTFCCCA’s Kyle Terwillegar. “FSU took fourth at the two most recent NCAA Championships, and was the runner-up in 2010 after a No. 3 rank in the polls the following week.”
FSU may have lost the battle to Georgetown at Pre-Nats, but they may have won the war come NCAAs. If you believe in curses or whatever.
The problem that FSU could potentially have in bigger meets was perfectly exploited by Georgetown. The Hoyas nestled their entire top five in-between FSU’s second and third ladies. If you look at our individual projections below, that won’t be a problem at the smaller ACC Championships.
The fall from grace
Preseason, the Blue Devils looked sick. They had garnered the top NCAA recruiting class and brought back some top ladies with all-American honors and national championship experience to their name.
Now, they’re literally sick. “We have rampant illness running through our team,” coach Kevin Jermyn told The Duke Chronicle. “If there is illness going around, we tend to catch them.”
That illness has struck freshmen blue-chippers Wesley Frazier and Hannah Meier pretty hard. Although Frazier and Meier made their debuts at the adidas Cross Country Challenge, Frazier did not run Wisconsin and Meier was kept out of the squad for Notre Dame.
Duke’s successive performances have dropped them from 4th in the National Coaches’ Poll, to 17th, and now to unranked.
Life’s not fantastic in Durham, NC. Here’s where things get even worse. According to our Kolas Calculator, Duke currently doesn't even make the NCAA Championships. But that’s a problem they can hopefully solve down the road. A more pressing issue is that if you took a glance at the results from Wisconsin, Duke finished fifth “among the ACC teams in attendance.”
Our projections have them eighth, but that’s without Frazier and a sickly squad. “Right now we are not where we want to be in November, but we do have enough time to get not only physically better but also mentally better,” Jermyn added.
The other team of youngsters
While most eyes were on the freshmen at Duke, the ladies of Virginia have slowly risen to the #10 team in the nation.
Though they are lead and anchored by some savvy veterans, most of their team consists of underclassman. At least the whole “freshman will make or break X” theme still fits.
With a very impressive Barbara Strehler upfront, the lady Wahoos finished a strong fourth at Pre-Nats. The results from that meet are below.
Before Pre-Nats, coach Todd Morgan remarked that the young UVA squad was primed for a big performance. The next day, we realized that they were the real deal.
Though they were a distant 74 points from FSU in Terre Haute, the whole issue of the size of the field comes into play again.
When we did our projections for Friday’s race, Virginia shouldn’t be too far off FSU. Since the FSU 1-2 and UVA’s number one can’t do much more to score “fewer” points, it’ll be up to some new team members to make sure that they maintain their spot in such a compact race.
Women’s Individual: Bottorff, Quigley, and the long run for home
She’s been Duke’s consistent leader and though the former NCAA 10k champion had an “off” race at Wisconsin, Juliet Bottorff is a good pick for ACCs. She’s the top finisher from last year and has come through in the past with some big wins.
But if we’re going to pick someone based on current form, our selection would be FSU’s Colleen Quigley. Here’s our reasoning.
In XC (even in track, too), Quigley is a model of consistency. Last fall, she won Notre Dame (16:28.2), took 4th at ACCs (right behind Bottorff in 20:17.6), finished second at the NCAA South Regional (20:11.9), and then finished 12th at NCAAs (12th). No real off-days for a whole season? Yes, please.
Though Quigley finished 8-seconds behind Bottorff at the Notre Dame Invitational, her race at Pre-Nats was quite impressive. Plus, it’s not like Quigley hasn’t beaten the Blue Devil - the Seminole was 12th at last year’s NCAA XC Championship while Bottorff was 27th.
Here's the kicker. When we used FloRatings to evaluate everyone’s performances from Wisconsin and Pre-Nats, it was Quigley who had the most impressive weekend.
She may have lead the Seminoles at Notre Dame and Wisconsin, but in both races, Quigley wasn’t the team’s #1 until the very end.
If you watched those two races, you’ll notice that FSU’s Hannah Walker loves to make an ambitious (and long) run for home. At Notre Dame, Walker tried to go with Bottorff and struggled to make it to the line. At Pre-Nats, she tried to run the legs out of some of the best in the NCAA. In both cases, Quigley pulled her back in right before the finish.
Exhibit A
We really like that she tries to win it from a long way out. We really do. But if Walker times her kick a bit better, then it might be the new girl on the team who takes the individual crown.
One last thing. Strehler is our dark horse pick, but finished too far back (about 10-seconds) from Quigley for us to really consider her a title contender. Projected to finish third isn't all that bad, though.
Note: These projections are mainly based on the results from Wisconsin and Pre-Nats
The build-up for this weekend’s showdown at Kernerville’s Beeson Park is much different than what we anticipated preseason. Back in August when Duke was ranked #4 and Florida State sat at #2, we thought that this would be the women’s conference meet to end all conference meets.
It would be a battle between a team that always seems to be at the top and a young squad on the rise. Though the former is still true, the latter is not. But oddly enough, even with all of the small disasters, another young team has stepped up to the challenge. And won’t you believe it, but the results will still be close.
Click here for the ACC individual and team projections
Women’s Team: Florida State, but not by as much as you would think
The curse
“[FSU] has emerged from Pre-Nationals as the top-ranked team in the country in each of the past two seasons, but one thing Florida State hasn’t done during this three-year stretch is parlay its Pre-National title into an NCAA National Championship,” wrote USTFCCCA’s Kyle Terwillegar. “FSU took fourth at the two most recent NCAA Championships, and was the runner-up in 2010 after a No. 3 rank in the polls the following week.”
FSU may have lost the battle to Georgetown at Pre-Nats, but they may have won the war come NCAAs. If you believe in curses or whatever.
The problem that FSU could potentially have in bigger meets was perfectly exploited by Georgetown. The Hoyas nestled their entire top five in-between FSU’s second and third ladies. If you look at our individual projections below, that won’t be a problem at the smaller ACC Championships.
The fall from grace
Preseason, the Blue Devils looked sick. They had garnered the top NCAA recruiting class and brought back some top ladies with all-American honors and national championship experience to their name.
Now, they’re literally sick. “We have rampant illness running through our team,” coach Kevin Jermyn told The Duke Chronicle. “If there is illness going around, we tend to catch them.”
That illness has struck freshmen blue-chippers Wesley Frazier and Hannah Meier pretty hard. Although Frazier and Meier made their debuts at the adidas Cross Country Challenge, Frazier did not run Wisconsin and Meier was kept out of the squad for Notre Dame.
Duke’s successive performances have dropped them from 4th in the National Coaches’ Poll, to 17th, and now to unranked.
Life’s not fantastic in Durham, NC. Here’s where things get even worse. According to our Kolas Calculator, Duke currently doesn't even make the NCAA Championships. But that’s a problem they can hopefully solve down the road. A more pressing issue is that if you took a glance at the results from Wisconsin, Duke finished fifth “among the ACC teams in attendance.”
Our projections have them eighth, but that’s without Frazier and a sickly squad. “Right now we are not where we want to be in November, but we do have enough time to get not only physically better but also mentally better,” Jermyn added.
The other team of youngsters
While most eyes were on the freshmen at Duke, the ladies of Virginia have slowly risen to the #10 team in the nation.
Though they are lead and anchored by some savvy veterans, most of their team consists of underclassman. At least the whole “freshman will make or break X” theme still fits.
With a very impressive Barbara Strehler upfront, the lady Wahoos finished a strong fourth at Pre-Nats. The results from that meet are below.
11 Barbara Strehler SR Virginia 20:22.8 11 31 Maria Hauger FR Virginia 20:50.5 31 39 Kathleen Stevens JR Virginia 20:55.4 39 52 Sarah Fakler FR Virginia 21:02.2 52 58 Sara Sargent FR Virginia 21:07.3 58 68 Vicky Fouhy SR Virginia 21:13.2 68 107 Cleo Boyd SO Virginia 21:31.4 107
Before Pre-Nats, coach Todd Morgan remarked that the young UVA squad was primed for a big performance. The next day, we realized that they were the real deal.
Though they were a distant 74 points from FSU in Terre Haute, the whole issue of the size of the field comes into play again.
When we did our projections for Friday’s race, Virginia shouldn’t be too far off FSU. Since the FSU 1-2 and UVA’s number one can’t do much more to score “fewer” points, it’ll be up to some new team members to make sure that they maintain their spot in such a compact race.
Women’s Individual: Bottorff, Quigley, and the long run for home
She’s been Duke’s consistent leader and though the former NCAA 10k champion had an “off” race at Wisconsin, Juliet Bottorff is a good pick for ACCs. She’s the top finisher from last year and has come through in the past with some big wins.
But if we’re going to pick someone based on current form, our selection would be FSU’s Colleen Quigley. Here’s our reasoning.
In XC (even in track, too), Quigley is a model of consistency. Last fall, she won Notre Dame (16:28.2), took 4th at ACCs (right behind Bottorff in 20:17.6), finished second at the NCAA South Regional (20:11.9), and then finished 12th at NCAAs (12th). No real off-days for a whole season? Yes, please.
Though Quigley finished 8-seconds behind Bottorff at the Notre Dame Invitational, her race at Pre-Nats was quite impressive. Plus, it’s not like Quigley hasn’t beaten the Blue Devil - the Seminole was 12th at last year’s NCAA XC Championship while Bottorff was 27th.
Here's the kicker. When we used FloRatings to evaluate everyone’s performances from Wisconsin and Pre-Nats, it was Quigley who had the most impressive weekend.
She may have lead the Seminoles at Notre Dame and Wisconsin, but in both races, Quigley wasn’t the team’s #1 until the very end.
If you watched those two races, you’ll notice that FSU’s Hannah Walker loves to make an ambitious (and long) run for home. At Notre Dame, Walker tried to go with Bottorff and struggled to make it to the line. At Pre-Nats, she tried to run the legs out of some of the best in the NCAA. In both cases, Quigley pulled her back in right before the finish.
Exhibit A
We really like that she tries to win it from a long way out. We really do. But if Walker times her kick a bit better, then it might be the new girl on the team who takes the individual crown.
One last thing. Strehler is our dark horse pick, but finished too far back (about 10-seconds) from Quigley for us to really consider her a title contender. Projected to finish third isn't all that bad, though.
Note: These projections are mainly based on the results from Wisconsin and Pre-Nats
|
Individual Projections |
Team Projections |
Place Name School 1 Colleen Quigley Florida State 2 Hannah Walker Florida State 3 Barbara Strehler Virginia 4 Juliet Bottorff Duke 5 Kelly Curran Notre Dame 6 Joanna Thompson North Carolina St. 7 Liv Westphal Boston College 8 Margo Malone Syracuse 9 Maria Hauger Virginia 10 Pippa Woolven Florida State 11 Courtney Dobbs Virginia Tech 12 Kathleen Stevens Virginia 13 Elizabeth Whelan North Carolina 14 Linden Hall Florida State 15 Annie Lehardy North Carolina 16 Sarah Fakler Virginia 17 Jessie Petersen Syracuse 18 Sara Sargent Virginia 19 Meredith Speakman Syracuse 20 Brittany Winslow Boston College 21 Vicky Fouhy Virginia 22 Georgia Peel Florida State 23 Samantha Jones Wake Forest 24 Hannah Eckstein Notre Dame 25 Anna Holdiman Florida State 26 Gabby Gonzales Notre Dame 27 Alexa Aragon Notre Dame 28 Sarah Rapp Virginia Tech 29 Alexandra Clinton Syracuse 30 Cleo Boyd Virginia 31 Morgan Mueller Boston College 32 Brianna Nerud Syracuse 33 Kaitlyn Kramer North Carolina St. 34 Carly Thomas Florida State 35 Madeleine Davidson Boston College 36 Anima Banks Duke 37 Megan Moye North Carolina St. 38 Madalyn Nuckols Virginia Tech 39 Haley Meier Duke 40 Emily Frydrych Notre Dame 41 Abigail Motley Virginia Tech 42 Emily Pritt North Carolina St. 43 Nicole Irving Wake Forest 44 Lindsi Arrington Miami 45 Grace Barnett Clemson 46 Brenna Symoniak Syracuse 47 Sydney Leiher Syracuse 48 Kaitlyn Oliver Wake Forest 49 Alexa Womack Clemson 50 Shannon Morton Virginia Tech 51 Catherine Maloy Boston College 52 Katie Fleischer Syracuse 53 Katie Townsend Georgia Tech 54 Morgan Perry Pitt 55 Hannah Meier Duke 56 Kathleen Darling Wake Forest 57 Kenyetta Iyevbele North Carolina St. 58 Maura Linde Syracuse 59 Paige Kvartunas Virginia Tech 60 Alexa Harvey North Carolina St. 61 Alaine Tate Miami 62 Aubrey Waggoner Wake Forest 63 Samantha George North Carolina St. 64 Ellie Abrahamson Wake Forest 65 Kylie McCoy North Carolina 66 Sydni Meunier Notre Dame 67 Kristin Weisse Wake Forest 68 Carolyn Baskir Duke 69 Rachel Brown Pitt 70 Hillary Boxheimer Pitt 71 Samantha Norman North Carolina St. 72 Doria Kosmala North Carolina 73 Madison Granger Duke 74 Danielle Aragon Notre Dame 75 McKinzie Schulz Notre Dame 76 Allison Brackin Georgia Tech 77 Alanna Poretta Boston College 78 Hayley Keadey Georgia Tech 79 Amanda Rickert Boston College 80 Cody Mezebish Maryland 81 Kelly Meyer Georgia Tech 82 Dee Dee Adams Pitt 83 Caleigh Bachop North Carolina 84 Catherine Herring Clemson 85 Melissa Fairey Georgia Tech 86 Alexandra Cady Pitt 87 Nicole Dawson Maryland 88 Kaylee Isaacs Georgia Tech 89 Ashley Miess North Carolina 90 Elizabeth Predmore Boston College 91 Brianna Blanton Clemson 92 Stephanie Powers Pitt 93 Rachel Hammond Georgia Tech 94 Brooke Dovell Miami 95 Julianna Miller Duke 96 Julie Gessler Maryland 97 Angel Bucci Maryland 98 Evie Tate Clemson 99 Karli O’Neill Pitt 100 Kirsten McGovern Maryland 101 Sarah Daly Maryland 102 Lisa Girard Clemson 103 Taylor Votek Miami 104 Sarah Zielinski Maryland 105 Ashley Berry Duke 106 Ally Finical Miami 107 Bailey Kowalczyk Clemson 108 Megan Brown Miami |
Place School Points 1 Florida State 49 2 Virginia 58 3 Syracuse 105 4 Notre Dame 122 5 Boston College 144 6 Virginia Tech 168 7 NC State 175 8 Duke 202 9 Wake Forest 232 10 North Carolina 248 11 Pitt 361 12 Clemson 367 13 Georgia Tech 373 14 Miami 408 15 Maryland 460 |
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