Cross Country Season on Flotrack 2013Nov 8, 2013 by Isaac Wood
Flotrack XC Rankings Women's NCAA Top Teams 31 - 21 (Week 5)
Flotrack XC Rankings Women's NCAA Top Teams 31 - 21 (Week 5)
Rankings guru Isaac Wood returns with his Flotrack NCAA XC Rankings. Though there were some major shifts in the poll, the picture for the NCAA XC Championship is starting to become a bit more clear. Below, Wood has listed the teams who will be making the NCAA meet, where they will finish in Terre Haute, and how many points they'll score. For the sake of brevity, we've broken up the countdown into three parts. Below are the women's teams from 31 to 21.
31 - Vanderbilt 742
Although this year has been a bit of a disappointment for the 'Dores, the chances of getting out of the South Region are pretty high. This past weekend at the SEC Champs, Vanderbilt ended up 5th. Liz Anderson has been running well all season and is one of the few bright spots for Vandy (she finished 5th at SECs).
Vanderbilt finished up at their conference championship with three athletes in the top-30-- Rebecca Chandler placed 20th and Amira Joseph was 29th. The pieces are there for the 'Dores, especially considering the quality of their recruiting class. If this team can come together when it matters most--the South Regional-- they could be better than where they are seeded. But presently, Vanderbilt is looking at needing to run quite well to assure they get in to the Big Dance.
30 - Wisconsin 714
A 7th place team at Big Tens is certainly not what the Badgers were expecting coming into this season, but the wins are in place so as long as they get the job done at the Great Lakes Regional, Wisconsin will make NCAAs.
With Gabi Anzalone not looking nearly as sharp as she did in 2012, Wisconsin lacks a real front runner and that is a huge factor in their poor showing at Big Tens. Emma-Lisa Murphy may have had her best race of the year so far finishing 17th individually.
In a deep conference, Wisconsin placed nearly four athletes in the top-40--proving they have sufficient depth. Sarah Disanza and Molly Hanson both had solid days at Big Ten coming in right together at 33rd and 34th, respectively. The Badgers need to make sure they take care of business at the regional to ensure their spot in Terre Haute.
29 - Harvard 648
I started the year with Harvard in my original top-31 teams making the meet and I was a little wary of them after they started poorly at the beginning of the year. But the Crimson have really come on well when it matters (that really goes to show how important it is to take the early season results with a grain of salt).
It is so much more important to look good at the end of the season, than blowing team's doors off early and letting the wheels come off late. This is the epitome of Harvard's season so far. Viviana Hanley and Morgan Kelly ran great at HEPS finishing together at 8th and 9th, respectively--leading the Crimson to a 3rd place team finish and were seven points behind Cornell. Harvard really has some solid depth and if they only had a real quality front runner they actually could crack the into the top 25. Kelly has run 16:27 and could come on and be top-60 at NCAAs, which would help lower their overall score at Nationals.
Coming out of the Northeast Region will be difficult as it is loaded, but Harvard is looking at back-to-back teams qualifying for the Big Dance.
28 - Duke 618
I can admit when I'm wrong and therefore here it is--Duke was not even close to being the no. 1 team this season. In my defense, on paper they were stacked! It truly is hard to predict injuries, illnesses, and overall poor performances. Each of those set backs played a huge role in the fall of Duke down the poll this year. The Blue Devils are starting to come around a tiny bit and now have Carolyn Baskir and Kelsey Lakowske back running. Baskir was 17th in a good ACC race and Lakowske at least ran (she'll get better).
Juliet Bottorff is obviously the biggest factor in any success Duke has had this year. Bottorff has run incredible all year long and is running well when it really matters. She made a decisive move at around 2k to go at ACCs, took home the individual honors, and lead Duke to a 5th place finish.
Bottorff after her win at ACCs.
The Blue Devils could knock off William and Mary at the Southeast Regional, which is what I'm banking on as an upset to get Duke into the Big Dance. Baskir is steadily improving and Lakowske will as well. Additionally, the a pair of healthy and talented Meier twins will be a big help at Regionals.
The bottom line is that Duke needs to place top-2 at the Southeast Regional. Considering how brutally crazy their season has been, here's to them getting it done at the Region meet.
27 - Princeton 615
A disappointing finish at HEPS left Princeton with a fourth place team finish. The good news is that Megan Curham (a freshman) has been on a roll this year. Curham placed 4th individually and finished right with two studs, Rachel Sorna of Cornell and Waverly Neer of Columbia. Emily de La Bruyere was also very good, finishing 10th.
The Tigers did have four athletes in the top-30 and just struggled with their no. 5. The good news for Princeton is that they are looking at a an auto bid to NCAAs out of the Mid-Atlantic and will run well at NCAAs where they should have two solid low-sticks in Curham and de La Bruyere.
26 - Texas A&M 610
The Aggies are finally coming around at the right time and are looking like a solid lock to make NCAAs. Led by Hillary Montgomery in 8th place, the Aggies placed 2nd as a team at SECs. Freshman Karis Jochen has really stepped up this year and did so at SECs where she was the no. 2 runner for Texas A&M and placed 13th overall. Grace Fletcher had her best race of the year and added a third athlete in the top-20 for the Aggies.
Things fall off after three and Coach Wendel McRaven is going to need someone to rise up to do much better than where they are currently sit in the depth chart. This upcoming weekend, the Aggies should be able to beat out Texas at the South Central Regional to qualify for NCAAs.
25 - Florida 610
At the SEC meet this weekend, Florida wound up 4th as a team with Agata Strausa leading the Gators with her 4th place individual finish. Cory McGee has steadily improved throughout the course of the season and was solid this past weekend finishing 16th. With two nice low-sticks that should both improve from where they were at SECs, the Gators will be better in a bigger meet--like Regionals and Nationals.
Delaware product Julie Macedo was a high school stud and has some room to grow after her 30th place finish at SECs. The key for Florida is to get the auto bid to NCAAs as they have little to no Kolas points and will need to lock up their selection by rolling at the South Regional and qualifying automatically.
At NCAAs, the Gators will obviously be better with two potential All-Americans. The depth of the Florida is skeptical, but they should make it happen at the regional meet.
24 - Cornell 579
Cornell is finally looking like the team we thought we'd see earlier in the year. Rachel Sorna had a very good weekend at HEPS placing 3rd individually and helping the Big Red finish 2nd as a team. Caroline Kellner is finally back running and although she was not her normal self last weekend, she will bounce back. Having her in the mix again makes Cornell much better (Kellner was 32nd and 6th on the team).
Emily Shearer also had a great day at HEPS where she was 6th and was only nine seconds from Sorna.
Cornell placed all five of their scorers in the top-25 and that's a good sign in a solid conference as the HEPS. Cornell is looking better and better each meet and will make it out of the Northeast Regional just fine.
23 - Notre Dame 560
Notre Dame is a very interesting team to me right now. The pieces are there for a top 15-20 type team, but they have yet to put it all together in a race. Kelly Curran, Molly Seidel, Alexa Aragon are all very good athletes that returned from 2012 and Hannah Eckstein (a transfer) has been excellent so far.
Nevertheless, the Irish finished 4th as a team at ACCs and saw only two athletes place in the top-20 (Curran-16th and Eckstein-20th). Alexa Aragon was right there in 22nd and Molly Seidel looked somewhat like her old self (she was in the mix for a while) placing 26th. They will get better as the season comes to a close and will need to see more out of Gabby Gonzales and Dani Aragon if they want to make a run for a top-15 spot at NCAAs.
22 Indiana 537
In basically a three-way tie for 5th at Big 10s, Indiana came away with a 6th place finish (one spot behind Ohio State)
That was an odd way to start this... how about: good thing Indiana has Samantha Ginther or they would have a very hard time getting themselves to the National Championships down the road in Terre Haute. To their credit, Kelsey Duerksen is normally much better than a 36th finish at the conference meet (granted the Big 10 is strong and deep) and on a normal day, is worth at least top-15.
Duerksen is a huge reason why I feel they'll even get out of the Great Lakes Regional and place as high as 22nd at NCAAs. With two strong low sticks, (common theme here) the Hoosiers are going to need someone else to really rise to the occasion to make things easier on Coach Ron Helmer. Amanda Behnke and Brianna Johnson are strong candidates to do just that.
21 - Boston College 531
Unfortunately, Boston College may have had their worst race of the season at ACCs with one shining star in Liv Westphal. With a strong 3rd place individual finish, Westphal was BC's no. 1 athlete by almost 80-seconds.
Generally, Morgan Mueller and Madeline Davidson are better than 31st and 44th. In my ACC predictions I did for my own team at FSU, I had them placing somewhere in the top-20. Brittany Winslow had a strong day and BC should bounce back at the Northeast Regional and get in to the Big Dance. They have some nice Kolas points and will be motivated to improve after a not-so-great showing at ACCs.
31 - Vanderbilt 742
Although this year has been a bit of a disappointment for the 'Dores, the chances of getting out of the South Region are pretty high. This past weekend at the SEC Champs, Vanderbilt ended up 5th. Liz Anderson has been running well all season and is one of the few bright spots for Vandy (she finished 5th at SECs).
Vanderbilt finished up at their conference championship with three athletes in the top-30-- Rebecca Chandler placed 20th and Amira Joseph was 29th. The pieces are there for the 'Dores, especially considering the quality of their recruiting class. If this team can come together when it matters most--the South Regional-- they could be better than where they are seeded. But presently, Vanderbilt is looking at needing to run quite well to assure they get in to the Big Dance.
30 - Wisconsin 714
A 7th place team at Big Tens is certainly not what the Badgers were expecting coming into this season, but the wins are in place so as long as they get the job done at the Great Lakes Regional, Wisconsin will make NCAAs.
With Gabi Anzalone not looking nearly as sharp as she did in 2012, Wisconsin lacks a real front runner and that is a huge factor in their poor showing at Big Tens. Emma-Lisa Murphy may have had her best race of the year so far finishing 17th individually.
In a deep conference, Wisconsin placed nearly four athletes in the top-40--proving they have sufficient depth. Sarah Disanza and Molly Hanson both had solid days at Big Ten coming in right together at 33rd and 34th, respectively. The Badgers need to make sure they take care of business at the regional to ensure their spot in Terre Haute.
29 - Harvard 648
I started the year with Harvard in my original top-31 teams making the meet and I was a little wary of them after they started poorly at the beginning of the year. But the Crimson have really come on well when it matters (that really goes to show how important it is to take the early season results with a grain of salt).
It is so much more important to look good at the end of the season, than blowing team's doors off early and letting the wheels come off late. This is the epitome of Harvard's season so far. Viviana Hanley and Morgan Kelly ran great at HEPS finishing together at 8th and 9th, respectively--leading the Crimson to a 3rd place team finish and were seven points behind Cornell. Harvard really has some solid depth and if they only had a real quality front runner they actually could crack the into the top 25. Kelly has run 16:27 and could come on and be top-60 at NCAAs, which would help lower their overall score at Nationals.
Coming out of the Northeast Region will be difficult as it is loaded, but Harvard is looking at back-to-back teams qualifying for the Big Dance.
28 - Duke 618
I can admit when I'm wrong and therefore here it is--Duke was not even close to being the no. 1 team this season. In my defense, on paper they were stacked! It truly is hard to predict injuries, illnesses, and overall poor performances. Each of those set backs played a huge role in the fall of Duke down the poll this year. The Blue Devils are starting to come around a tiny bit and now have Carolyn Baskir and Kelsey Lakowske back running. Baskir was 17th in a good ACC race and Lakowske at least ran (she'll get better).
Juliet Bottorff is obviously the biggest factor in any success Duke has had this year. Bottorff has run incredible all year long and is running well when it really matters. She made a decisive move at around 2k to go at ACCs, took home the individual honors, and lead Duke to a 5th place finish.
Bottorff after her win at ACCs.
The Blue Devils could knock off William and Mary at the Southeast Regional, which is what I'm banking on as an upset to get Duke into the Big Dance. Baskir is steadily improving and Lakowske will as well. Additionally, the a pair of healthy and talented Meier twins will be a big help at Regionals.
The bottom line is that Duke needs to place top-2 at the Southeast Regional. Considering how brutally crazy their season has been, here's to them getting it done at the Region meet.
27 - Princeton 615
A disappointing finish at HEPS left Princeton with a fourth place team finish. The good news is that Megan Curham (a freshman) has been on a roll this year. Curham placed 4th individually and finished right with two studs, Rachel Sorna of Cornell and Waverly Neer of Columbia. Emily de La Bruyere was also very good, finishing 10th.
The Tigers did have four athletes in the top-30 and just struggled with their no. 5. The good news for Princeton is that they are looking at a an auto bid to NCAAs out of the Mid-Atlantic and will run well at NCAAs where they should have two solid low-sticks in Curham and de La Bruyere.
26 - Texas A&M 610
The Aggies are finally coming around at the right time and are looking like a solid lock to make NCAAs. Led by Hillary Montgomery in 8th place, the Aggies placed 2nd as a team at SECs. Freshman Karis Jochen has really stepped up this year and did so at SECs where she was the no. 2 runner for Texas A&M and placed 13th overall. Grace Fletcher had her best race of the year and added a third athlete in the top-20 for the Aggies.
Things fall off after three and Coach Wendel McRaven is going to need someone to rise up to do much better than where they are currently sit in the depth chart. This upcoming weekend, the Aggies should be able to beat out Texas at the South Central Regional to qualify for NCAAs.
25 - Florida 610
At the SEC meet this weekend, Florida wound up 4th as a team with Agata Strausa leading the Gators with her 4th place individual finish. Cory McGee has steadily improved throughout the course of the season and was solid this past weekend finishing 16th. With two nice low-sticks that should both improve from where they were at SECs, the Gators will be better in a bigger meet--like Regionals and Nationals.
Delaware product Julie Macedo was a high school stud and has some room to grow after her 30th place finish at SECs. The key for Florida is to get the auto bid to NCAAs as they have little to no Kolas points and will need to lock up their selection by rolling at the South Regional and qualifying automatically.
At NCAAs, the Gators will obviously be better with two potential All-Americans. The depth of the Florida is skeptical, but they should make it happen at the regional meet.
24 - Cornell 579
Cornell is finally looking like the team we thought we'd see earlier in the year. Rachel Sorna had a very good weekend at HEPS placing 3rd individually and helping the Big Red finish 2nd as a team. Caroline Kellner is finally back running and although she was not her normal self last weekend, she will bounce back. Having her in the mix again makes Cornell much better (Kellner was 32nd and 6th on the team).
Emily Shearer also had a great day at HEPS where she was 6th and was only nine seconds from Sorna.
Cornell placed all five of their scorers in the top-25 and that's a good sign in a solid conference as the HEPS. Cornell is looking better and better each meet and will make it out of the Northeast Regional just fine.
23 - Notre Dame 560
Notre Dame is a very interesting team to me right now. The pieces are there for a top 15-20 type team, but they have yet to put it all together in a race. Kelly Curran, Molly Seidel, Alexa Aragon are all very good athletes that returned from 2012 and Hannah Eckstein (a transfer) has been excellent so far.
Nevertheless, the Irish finished 4th as a team at ACCs and saw only two athletes place in the top-20 (Curran-16th and Eckstein-20th). Alexa Aragon was right there in 22nd and Molly Seidel looked somewhat like her old self (she was in the mix for a while) placing 26th. They will get better as the season comes to a close and will need to see more out of Gabby Gonzales and Dani Aragon if they want to make a run for a top-15 spot at NCAAs.
22 Indiana 537
In basically a three-way tie for 5th at Big 10s, Indiana came away with a 6th place finish (one spot behind Ohio State)
That was an odd way to start this... how about: good thing Indiana has Samantha Ginther or they would have a very hard time getting themselves to the National Championships down the road in Terre Haute. To their credit, Kelsey Duerksen is normally much better than a 36th finish at the conference meet (granted the Big 10 is strong and deep) and on a normal day, is worth at least top-15.
Duerksen is a huge reason why I feel they'll even get out of the Great Lakes Regional and place as high as 22nd at NCAAs. With two strong low sticks, (common theme here) the Hoosiers are going to need someone else to really rise to the occasion to make things easier on Coach Ron Helmer. Amanda Behnke and Brianna Johnson are strong candidates to do just that.
21 - Boston College 531
Unfortunately, Boston College may have had their worst race of the season at ACCs with one shining star in Liv Westphal. With a strong 3rd place individual finish, Westphal was BC's no. 1 athlete by almost 80-seconds.
Generally, Morgan Mueller and Madeline Davidson are better than 31st and 44th. In my ACC predictions I did for my own team at FSU, I had them placing somewhere in the top-20. Brittany Winslow had a strong day and BC should bounce back at the Northeast Regional and get in to the Big Dance. They have some nice Kolas points and will be motivated to improve after a not-so-great showing at ACCs.
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