Every year, the same story. Who will be the top freshman in the NCAA?

Taking a glance at the women’s side, Elise Cranny and Sarah Baxter appear to be obvious choices. We've got Cranny ranked #17 in our Saucony Flo50, and have yet to place Baxter in the top 25 because of her outdoor season injury. Predicting freshman success is fun, but their success requires a delicate balance.

Last year, Flotrack ranked the Duke women preseason #1 partially because of their recruiting class featuring Hannah and Haley Meier, and Wesley Frazier (who so famously completed a 4:30, 10:07, 15:55 triple at NBN Outdoors in 2013). Frazier did not compete last year, and the Meiers couldn’t propel the Duke team to the NCAA Championships. Similar to Duke, the Washington women are famous for having stacked incoming classes, but multiple high school state titles doesn’t necessarily translate into All American status.

So why talk about freshmen? Because every year there are those who will lead their teams to success. The trend of these young athletes is interesting though. In 2013, three true freshmen placed in the Top 40. Erin Finn was the best in Terre Haute, finishing 30th and leading Michigan to a 4th place finish. Megan Curham of Princeton (34th) and Bethanie Brown of Iowa State (37th) followed.

2012 told a different story. Laura Hollander of Cal Poly (9th), Sarah Collins of Providence (10th), Emily Stites of William and Mary (26th) and Cayla Hatton of Stanford (28th) shook things up and proved their raw talent as true freshmen. Hollander, Collins and Stites have yet to race in 2014, and Hatton is no longer on the Stanford roster.

So is finishing too high at the NCAA Championships a bad thing? Absolutely not. But with the real fall season kicking off last weekend and featured races on tap this weekend, let’s discuss who we think may be the top youngster in 2014.

LOOKS GOOD ON PAPER…

Elise Cranny, Stanford, Yet to debut in 2014
It should not come as a shock that we have Cranny ranked so high. A runner-up finish at 2013 NXN and 4th in the World Juniors 1500m are only two of her many accolades. The Colorado native has yet to debut in her Cardinal uniform and we may have to wait until the Wisconsin Invite to measure her up. A smart move for the much-hyped Cranny whose track season extended far longer than most high schoolers. Based on her gutsy World Junior performance, there’s no doubt she has the talent and attitude to finish top 20 in the NCAA.

Sarah Baxter, Oregon, Yet to debut in 2014
Quite possibly the most decorated high schooler from California, Baxter shut down her outdoor season after an injury. Was the move made to preserve her for the upcoming season as a Duck? It’s possible, but coming off an injury is difficult, and the expectations may lead to a redshirt season. Look for the Oregon women to debut their top guns at the Washington Invite this weekend, but don’t expect to see Baxter quite yet.

Anna Laman, Stanford, Yet to debut in 2014
The Australian native ran 2:05 and 4:15 in 2014, finishing 12th at the World Junior Championships 1500m final. With similar PRs to her new teammate, Cranny, there could be something magical brewing between these two in Palo Alto. Whether her track speed equals cross country success is undetermined, and we’ll hopefully find out in Seattle this Saturday.

WE’VE ALREADY SEEN…

Bethan Knights, Cal, 15th at Roy Griak
Knights was a stud in high school (She holds the record for the fastest 1600m/3200m double ever run by a high schooler) and claimed the top frosh position at Roy Griak, finishing the difficult 6k in 21:37 for 15th place. Considering the depth of the field, this should not go overlooked. Getting a taste of competing with the top girls at Griak should give Knights confidence going into Pre-Nats. It’ll be difficult for Cal to qualify for NCAAs out of the West Region, but Knights’ immediate impact may carry her to Terre Haute as an individual.

Sarah Feeny, Utah, 1st at Montana State Invitational
Feeny is coming off one of the best outdoor seasons of any high schooler. She took the adidas Dream Mile and Brooks PR Invite mile and shattered Utah state records. Feeny won the Montana State Invitational three mile race in 16:56 and will face stiff competition in Seattle this weekend. Utah has never been one of the stronger distance programs in the nation, but with Rebekah Winterton recording a 33:28 10k last spring, Feeny could be that superstar that will put the Utes on the map.