Pre-Nats Madness

Oct 15, 2014 by Lincoln Shryack

Men:
Two top 5 squads and PAC-12 rivals will go head-to-head this weekend in Terre Haute. Colorado and Oregon are ranked #1 and #5 respectively in our Saucony Flo50 rankings, and feature five individuals that are among the top 10 in the poll. The #1 Buffaloes have looked unshakeable thus far this season and seem destined to repeat as champions. After their historical performance at the Rocky Mountain Shootout, which led senior Blake Theroux to implore other teams to fear the Buffaloes, Colorado will look to stoke that fire even more this Saturday.

They will face a Ducks team that has yet to reveal all their cards, as freshman Blake Haney will wear an Oregon uniform for the first time this weekend after running unattached and finishing 2nd at the Charles Bowles Invite two weekends ago. Haney will join returning NCAA champion Edward Cheserek and fellow low-stick Eric Jenkins on the squad that figures to pose the biggest threat to Colorado’s dominance this Saturday.

Although the Ducks will bring the second best team to Pre-Nats, that does not necessarily mean they will put a scare into Colorado. Mark Wetmore may have on his hands the best Buffaloes squad ever, and they should have no trouble disposing of the competition this weekend. The Buffaloes have four men ranked in the top-13 in the Flo50, and of course return everyone (plus Jake Hurysz) from last year’s team. We predict that after a commanding victory on Saturday, a few more Buffs will find their way into our rankings.

In the individual battle, Edward Cheserek figures to be dominant once more. The #1 runner in the NCAA will have to be beaten to come down from his throne, and King Ches has shown no signs of relinquishing his crown. Some pressure will be applied by NCAA steeple champ Anthony Rotich, who actually beat Cheserek at this race last year. Rotich is an aggressive runner who will force Cheserek to get out quick, but that should be no issue as the Oregon superstar has proven he can win across all tactical spectrums. Cheserek and Rotich will separate themselves from the pack, with Oregon’s Eric Jenkins and the entire Buffaloes squad forming the chase group.

Another runner to watch will be Indiana State’s John Mascari. The hometown All-American was 11th at Pre-Nats last season, and he should mix it up with the big names on Saturday. Mascari, a junior, was 3rd at the highly competitive Notre Dame Invite two weeks ago, and will have the considerable advantage of familiarity with the course when the gun goes off in Terre Haute. We expect Mascari to work his way into the top-10 by the end of the 8k race.

Women:
Three teams ranked in the top-5 will make their way to Terre Haute to form the best team battle of the weekend. The #2 Michigan women will be favored at Pre-Nats led by sophomore Erin Finn (#4 in Saucony Flo50). Finn was 2nd at the Battle in Beantown three weeks ago, and led the Wolverines to the team victory in Boston. Also coming on strong for the Maize and Blue is junior Shannon Osika (#23 Flo50) who finished 3rd in Boston. Finn and Osika form a solid 1-2 punch that will be tough to match by anyone else on Saturday.

The Georgetown Hoyas are listed right after Michigan in our rankings, currently #3. The Hoyas were 2nd to Michigan in Boston, and are led by senior Katrina Coogan, #19 in the Saucony Flo50. Coogan took 4th in Boston, but she finished 16 seconds behind Finn, and that was only a 5k. This race will be 6k, and Coogan may have even more trouble sticking with the Wolverines as the race becomes longer. If Coogan can’t hang with Michigan’s low-sticks, Georgetown doesn’t stand a chance on Saturday.

Even though they are ranked at #5, the Oregon women have the best chance to upset Michigan this weekend. Despite not running prohibitive top guns Waverly Neer and Sarah Baxter at the Washington Invite, the Ducks still took down Stanford and Washington to win in Seattle. Once again, we’re not sure if either Neer or Baxter will run at Pre-Nats, but if even one of those girls takes the line in Terre Haute, the Ducks become formidable.

Oregon has been led thus far by senior Lindsay Crevoiserat, who was 4th at UW. Crevoiserat has remained a relative unknown on the national scene up to this point in the season, but her early season results suggest that she will have a breakout performance on Saturday. Look for her to mix it up in the chase pack behind Finn and Baylor’s Rachel Johnson (#9 Flo50). A solid performance for Crevoiserat could help the Ducks score a major upset in Terre Haute.

In the individual race, a nice top-10 battle will go down between Finn and Rachel Johnson. Johnson was solid at the Roy Griak Invite, finishing just 7 seconds behind #1 ranked Shelby Houlihan. If she can replicate that performance in Terre Haute, it could spell trouble for Finn. Although the Michigan sophomore was 2nd at Boston, she was 21 seconds behind race winner Liv Westphal. She will have to be better in Terre Haute.

Prediction:
The Colorado men will dominate Pre-Nats. With four returning All-Americans, plus 2012 All-American Jake Hurysz, CU’s depth is unmatchable. The Buffaloes should score around 50-60 points to easily beat 2nd place Oregon. In the individual race, Edward Cheserek is a man among boys at this race. Ches wins in 23:25 with Rotich in 2nd.

The women’s team battle should be much closer at Pre-Nats. Despite Michigan being higher ranked than Oregon, these teams seem evenly matched heading into this race. Both teams are deep, but the Wolverines have a stronger 1-2 punch than the Ducks (if they are still without Neer and Baxter). Michigan wins a tight team battle.

The race to the line should be a nice duel between Finn and Johnson. This one will be close, but Finn knows how to run this course, having finished 30th at NCAAs a year ago. Finn over Johnson in the top-10 showdown.