The two highest returners from last year’s NCAA meet have remained in the shadows for the majority of the 2014 cross country season. While names like Shelby Houlihan (#1 Flo50) and Crystal Nelson (#2) have been daily discussion topics around the Flotrack office for the last two months, Emma Bates and Kate Avery have not often come up. Why were we ignoring the 2nd and 3rd place finishers from 2013? 

Saucony Flo50 Rankings

Bates was mediocre at best at Griak in late September, where she placed 6th, nearly 30 seconds behind Houlihan, and was only slightly better at Wisco, again placing 6th, 12 seconds back of Nelson. Even though she was the favorite coming into the season, the Boise State senior was not looking the part of an NCAA champion after her first two races. The outdoor 10k champion was becoming an “also ran.” Subsequently, Bates fell to #8 in the Saucony Flo50. 

The chatter around Avery, or lack there of, was not because she had underperformed like Bates, but because she had not performed at all.There were no mid-season races to speak of, and after the Wisco/Pre-Nats weekend, Avery was fading out of the discussion. The fourth place finisher at the Commonwealth 10k dropped to 14th in our poll. 

Wisco and Pre-Nats are undoubtably the two most important meets during the regular season. Almost every team races at one or the other, as it’s the best chance to lock up an NCAA birth before conference/regionals. Even though it’s still a month before NCAA’s, many project that the race winners from Madison and Terre Haute in mid-October will have similar success at NCAA’s. But predicting the NCAA meet based off one race is dangerous, and it neglects those runners that either had an off day or were absent entirely. Bates and Avery fit those descriptions.  

Enter conference weekend 2014. 

Bates and Avery were heavily favored in their respective conferences (MWC & MAAC), so it wasn’t just a victory that each would be seeking. For Bates, she needed a confidence booster. The pressure of being the NCAA favorite can be overwhelming (see Barringer, Jenny), and she seemed to be crumbling under that weight in her first two outings. 

All but forgotten, Bates was back to her old ways last Friday in Fresno, running 19:37 to win by a comfortable 16 seconds. There were no scalps to be taken at that race, but Bates had broken the tape for first time in 2014. Mission accomplished. 

Avery would’ve only had to run a solid training pace to out-distance the competition at the MAAC Championships last Friday, but the Iona junior had other plans. In what turned into a time trial, Avery crushed a 19:15 6k in her first outing of 2014, a mind-boggling 5:10/mile. In a sport where time doesn’t matter, Avery’s performance broke convention. Running that fast, all alone, is impossible to ignore. Again, mission accomplished. 

Many will still overlook both Bates and Avery as the anticipation builds for NCAA’s, and pundits will point to Bates early season failures, as well as Avery’s lack of competition as reasons that either of them won’t be able to contend for a title. Even with Shelby Houlihan and Crystal Nelson becoming popular picks, the fact remains- the pre-season favorites are rounding into form at exactly the right time.