Once the Ethiopian track federation announced world record holder Kenenisa Bekele would indeed be racing both the 5k and 10k in Beijing, the Letsrun forums began buzzing with discussion of Lagat vs. Bekele. There are two possible scenarios that the race could play out. One of the Ethiopians may sacrifice his own race in order to set a fast pace, favoring Bekele's strength as a 10k runner. A slow pace, however, may lead to a furious kick over the final 300 meters, allowing Lagat's mile speed to reign supreme, though Bekele has closed in 53 seconds in the 10k.

Other than the two favorites, the Kenyan and Ethiopian contingencies will pose legitimate challenges. Eliud Kipchoge has a tremendous racing pedigree, highlighted by a victory over Bekele and Hicham El Guerrouj as a 18 year old at the 2003 World Championships. Kipchoge has also won a bronze at the Athens games and second a year ago to Lagat in Osaka. The two other Kenyan representatives are Edwin Soi (7:32.13 3k in Doha) and Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa (PR of 12:51.95 from 2007). Kenenisa's younger brother Tariku finally had his breakthrough race this spring with a gold at the World Indoor Championships in the 3000m. Placing third in that race was world junior champion Abraham Cherkos, who also ran a strong 12:54.19 at the Rome Golden League meet.

Uganda's Moses Kipsiro barely edged America's Matt Tegenkamp a year ago in Osaka and has shown his fitness with a 12:54.70 this year in Berlin. Australia's hope for gold comes from Craig Mottram, who ran 7:37.73 for the win at the Stockholm 3k, including a 54.6 final lap.

The Bottom Line: Like most championship races, the pace will likely go out slow for the first mile to mile and a half. Kenenisa Bekele will likely begin pushing the pace with a mile to go, but if Lagat can hold onto the pace, he will be able to outkick the world record holder.
Gold: Bernard Lagat (USA)
Silver: Kenenisa Bekele (ETH)
Bronze: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN)

2007 World Championships, Osaka (video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-sHYX3-c1U)
1. Bernard Lagat USA 13:45.87
2. Eliud Kipchoge KEN 13:46.00
3. Moses Ndiema Kipsiro UGA 13:46.75
4. Matthew Tegenkamp USA 13:46.78
5. Tariku Bekele ETH 13:47.33
6. Mohammed Farah GBR 13:47.54
7. Jesus Espana ESP 13:50.55
8. Abraham Cherkos ETH 13:51.01
9. Felix Kikwai Kibore QAT 13:51.18
10. Ali Abdalla ERI 13:52.69
11. Adam Goucher USA 13:53.17
12. Hicham Bellani MAR 13:55.44
13. Craig Mottram AUS 13:56.24
14. Juan Luis Barrios MEX 13:59.86
15. Benjamin Limo KEN 14:01.25

2004 Olympics, Athens (video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyCB_Js0xp0)
1. Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 13:14.39
2. Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13:14.59
3. Eliud Kipchoge KEN 13:15.10
4. Gebre Egziabher Gebremariam ETH 13:15.35
5. Dejene Berhanu ETH 13:16.92
6. John Kibowen KEN 13:18.24
7. Zersenay Tadesse ERI 13:24.31
8. Craig Mottram AUS 13:25.70
9. Hicham Bellani MAR 13:31.81
10. Ali Saidi Sief ALG 13:32.57
11. Tim Broe USA 13:33.06
12. Alistair Ian Cragg IRE 13:43.06
13. Abderrahim Goumri MAR 13:47.27
14. Samir Moussaoui ALG 14:02.01
15. Abraham Chebii KEN DNF