2017 DI NCAA West XC Regional

Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker

Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker

Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker

Nov 11, 2017 by Gordon Mack
Kolas Projections Were Wrong Due To Crazy Tiebreaker

Today the NCAA announced the 62-team field for the 2017 Division I NCAA Cross Country Championships, which you can watch LIVE on FloTrack

However, the NCAA's official field was different from our Kolas projections. The discrepancy came down to the final two women's teams. Our projections had Missouri and Virginia Tech; the NCAA selected Indiana and Eastern Michigan.


So what happened?


It turns out our projections miscalculated an elaborate tiebreaker between Missouri and Indiana.


Both Missouri and Indiana had two wins over qualified teams: Missouri beat Oklahoma State and Texas, while Indiana beat Columbia and Dartmouth.


The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, which doesn't come into play since Indiana and Missouri never raced each other this season. The second tiebreaker is common opponents, which our projections thought was equal (turns out they weren't). And the third tiebreaker is highest finish at regionals, which gives an advantage to Missouri since they were fourth in the Midwest and Indiana was fifth.


This was why we selected Missouri incorrectly.


Here is why our "common opponents" tiebreaker was wrong and the NCAA's was right: It turns out Indiana and Missouri had 25 common opponents!


Here's how they fared against those opponents:


TEAMW/LCOMMON OPPONENTMEET
INDIANAWBoston CollegeBATTLE IN BEANTOWN
INDIANAWBowling GreenGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWBradleySAM BELL
INDIANAWBrownBATTLE IN BEANTOWN
INDIANAWButlerGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWCentral MichiganGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWDaytonGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWIllinoisBATTLE IN BEANTOWN
INDIANAWIllinoisBIG TEN
INDIANAWIowaBIG TEN
INDIANAWIUPUIGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWKentuckyNUTTYCOMBE
INDIANAWMiami (Ohio)GREAT LAKES
INDIANAWMiami (Ohio)SAM BELL
INDIANAWNebraskaBIG TEN
INDIANAWNebraskaSAM BELL
INDIANAWNorthwesternBIG TEN
INDIANAWOhio StateGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWToledoGREAT LAKES
INDIANAWTulsaNUTTYCOMBE
INDIANAWUMass LowellBATTLE IN BEANTOWN
INDIANAWVanderbiltNUTTYCOMBE
INDIANAWXavier (Ohio)GREAT LAKES
INDIANALEastern MichiganGREAT LAKES
INDIANALEastern MichiganNUTTYCOMBE
INDIANALIowa StateNUTTYCOMBE
INDIANALMichiganBIG TEN
INDIANALMichiganGREAT LAKES
INDIANALMichiganSAM BELL
INDIANALMinnesotaBIG TEN
INDIANALMinnesotaNUTTYCOMBE
INDIANALOhio StateBIG TEN
INDIANALPenn StateBIG TEN
MISSOURIWBoston CollegePRE-NATS
MISSOURIWBowling GreenPRE-NATS
MISSOURIWBradleyMIDWEST
MISSOURIWBrownPRE-NATS
MISSOURIWButlerCOMMODORE
MISSOURIWCentral MichiganPRE-NATS
MISSOURIWEastern MichiganCOMMODORE
MISSOURIWIllinoisMIDWEST
MISSOURIWIowaMIDWEST
MISSOURIWIUPUICOMMODORE
MISSOURIWKentuckySEC
MISSOURIWMiami (Ohio)COMMODORE
MISSOURIWMiami (Ohio)PRE-NATS
MISSOURIWNebraskaMIDWEST
MISSOURIWNorthwesternCOWBOY JAMBOREE
MISSOURIWNorthwesternMIDWEST
MISSOURIWTulsaCOWBOY JAMBOREE
MISSOURIWTulsaMIDWEST
MISSOURIWUMass LowellPRE-NATS
MISSOURIWVanderbiltSEC
MISSOURIWXavier (Ohio)COMMODORE
MISSOURILDaytonPRE-NATS
MISSOURILIowa StateMIDWEST
MISSOURILMichiganPRE-NATS
MISSOURILMinnesotaMIDWEST
MISSOURILNorthwesternPRE-NATS
MISSOURILOhio StateCOMMODORE
MISSOURILOhio StatePRE-NATS
MISSOURILPenn StateCOWBOY JAMBOREE
MISSOURILToledoPRE-NATS
MISSOURILVanderbiltCOMMODORE


Indiana's record was 23-10 (.697). Missouri's record was 21-10 (.677).


As a result, Indiana won the tiebreaker for common opponents, and should have been selected over Missouri -- which then resulted in Eastern Michigan being selected for the final at-large spot.


For the full NCAA selection criteria click here