Friday night in Austin won’t be the last time Morgan McDonald and Grant Fisher race. The two are destined for successful pro careers and there will be more meetings at a Diamond League meet, world championships or some other big race in the future. 

But the 5000m final at this week’s NCAA Championships does mark the last time they will compete as collegians. McDonald started at Wisconsin a year before Fisher began his freshman year at Stanford. The two had close races early in their careers, but never when they were contenders for a national title. Injuries and redshirts prevented them from racing on the track the past two seasons. When Fisher won the 5000m title in 2017, McDonald wasn’t in the meet. 

This academic year has been about making up for lost time. 

Since the fall, McDonald won three NCAA Championships with Fisher finishing runner-up twice. In between, Fisher edged McDonald at the Millrose Games 3000m. The only other match-up happened two weeks ago in Sacramento at the West Prelim in the 5000m—an easy run for both, but one where Fisher crossed the line first. 

“I saw Grant in front of me, and he was kicking away, and I was like, not today. I’ll let him have this one,” McDonald said after the race. “I kind of jogged it in—the work was done—and [I'll] just get ready for two weeks now.” 

McDonald’s race was a microcosm of his outdoor season. He approached the spring as a protracted prelim, running times to qualify and nothing more—with one exception: the Big Ten Championships, where he had to kick to win the 10,000m. Other than that, it’s been a masterclass in conservation.

Fisher has been on the other end of the spectrum. Undoubtedly, his focus has been on Austin, but along the way he set personal bests at 1500m and 5000m. The latter came in a race designed to mimic an NCAA final with a descending series of 400-meter splits in the last mile. Fisher looked solid as always, running 13:29. 

His consistency has never been in question. He’s finished in the top five at an NCAA Championships nine times throughout his career between individual events and relays across the three seasons. 

But just as dependable has been the presence of resolute competition that turned those nine opportunities into only one victory. 

His most recent roadblock, McDonald, has won with superior speed in the final stretch of races. In the 3000m indoors, McDonald closed in 26 seconds over the last 200m. Fisher can kick, he wouldn’t finish in the top five so many times without the ability to close, but McDonald outgunned him both indoors and when they raced at the NCAA Cross Country Championships. 

Fisher’s increased focus on modeling a championship race and his own closing speed (he ran 54 seconds at the West prelim), gives him a chance to end his outdoor career with a victory.

In the heat before McDonald and Fisher’s in Sacramento, a new wrinkle was thrown into the race. Northern Arizona’s Geordie Beamish exploded from the pack in the last 400m, running a 55.2 final lap to win the heat. The early pace was pedestrian, which resulted in finishing times much slower than the first heat. But taken in the context of his NCAA title indoors in the mile, it adds up to Beamish slotting in nicely to the role of spoiler—particularly, if the pace dawdles. 

Beamish’s decision to run the 5000m was an interesting choice.  Even with a 13:31 personal best, he’s the NCAA champion in the mile. Why wouldn’t he run the 1500m this spring? 

“Everyone would agree the 5K is the strongest event with Morgan and Grant running and I want to race them,” Beamish said after the race in Sacramento. 

Wish granted. 

The presence of Beamish adds a different dynamic to the race. Do Fisher and McDonald really want a miler in contention with a lap to go? Beamish is good enough to stick around even in an honest race. It’s hard to say how the field will approach the hot and humid conditions in Austin and the weather will serve as an unforgiving opponent for everyone in the race. 

Fisher, McDonald and Beamish command the majority of attention, but this field offers more than just those three. Cooper Teare of Oregon and Thomas Ratcliffe of Stanford were second and third to Fisher when he ran that personal best at Cardinal Classic. Conner Mantz of BYU will be doubling back from the 10,000m and is a fearless racer. Then there’s NAU’s Luis Grijalva, Iowa State’s Edwin Kurgat, Clayton Young of BYU and John Dressel of Colorado—all should fight for an All-American finish.

But up front, this race seems pre-ordained to come down to McDonald and Fisher. There's a magnetic quality keeping them next to each other going back to this meet in 2016, when the two finished fifth and sixth, separated by a quarter of a second. This time, the last time, there’s no reason to think it will be any different.

Men's 10,000m: Another Surprise Winner On Tap

Last year, there was no favorite in the men’s 10,000m and yet, the result was still a stunner. Michigan’s Ben Flanagan, despite an abbreviated season due to injuries, kicked past Alabama’s Vincent Kiprop in the final 100 meters. When he crossed the line, cameras caught him saying, “Where’s my mom?” with equal parts disbelief and joy. 

The rest of us were asking questions too. 

Specifically, how did a man with a 29:13 10,000m personal best just win an NCAA title?

The 10,000m in 2019 is poised for a similar unpredictable ending. Yes, there are familiar names for those who follow cross country like NAU’s Tyler Day, Alabama’s Gilbert Kigen, Colorado’s John Dressel and the quartet from BYU of Conner Mantz, Connor McMillian, Clayton Young and Rory Linkletter. But there's no clear favorite, or even a short list of favorites, in this field. There is no Fisher or McDonald. Even if one of the seven listed above does emerge from Austin’s heat and humidity, it would be a surprise. 

There wasn’t much to glean from the preliminary round. Kigen won by two seconds in the East, while the West qualifiers were separated by just four seconds. McMillian, Linkletter, Mantz and Young have the four best times on the year--all from meets at Stanford. 

BYU's heavy presence will be interesting to watch with six entrants (Dallin Farnsworth and Connor Weaver are the other two), making up 25% of the overall field. How impressive is that? Let’s breakdown the entries:

BYU Runners Named Connor/Conner: 3

BYU Runners Not Named Connor/Conner:3

Coastal Carolina: 2

Colorado: 2

Furman: 2

Every Other School: 1

Owning a quarter of the field seems as opportune a time as any to leverage team tactics. A faster pace would seem to favor the BYU runners--both because of their quick marks and their sheer quantity of entries. 

But a big group on the start list guarantees nothing. Last year, BYU had four entries (yes, that’s smaller than six, but still big) and they placed 11th (McMillian), 22nd (Mantz), 23rd (Young) and 24th (Linkletter). They are all back this year, undoubtedly motivated by last year’s result in Eugene. 

Ben Veatch of Indiana finished an inconspicuous seventh in the East Preliminary Round, but the sophomore has championship experience and strong closing speed. He took Morgan McDonald to the line at the Big Ten Championships 10,000m and then returned to win the 5000m. Oklahoma State’s Hassan Abdi, a fast finisher as well, has plenty of NCAA finals experience. Like Veatch, he can kick off an honest pace, but will also be content if the tempo lags in the beginning of the race. 

If you told me the first-mile split, I’d feel more confident in picking a winner, or even picking who will be around at the bell. But so much of this event is up in the air.  Will it go out fast? Will the heat force it to be conservative? How much will BYU try to control the tempo? And, more importantly, will the eventual winner be as shocked as Flanagan was in 2018? 

Men’s 1500m: Oliver Hoare Tries To Defend His Title Against Deep & Dangerous Field 

After his race at the West Preliminary Round, reigning champion Oliver Hoare spelled out the perils of trying to defend a 1500m title in 2019. The depth--15 men have run faster than 3:40 this year--and the psychological challenge of going back-to-back have made his season formidable.

“There’s going to be a target on your back. You can either hide behind it or embrace it, and I really embrace it. It’s good to have that motivation of, 'I did it once, I can do it again.' Winning one of these championships is no small feat,” Hoare said. 

Last year, Hoare upset Josh Kerr in Eugene. Kerr was going for his fourth consecutive 1500m/mile title before Hoare out-kicked him on the homestretch at Hayward Field. That result immediately thrusted Hoare from mid-pack runner in NCAA championships to the best collegiate mid-distance runner. If you beat the guy who was the guy, and do it on the biggest stage, that’s the only logical conclusion. 

But the 1500m is unforgiving. And this year, especially so. Hoare’s junior year started out with a stellar cross country season, where he showed ridiculous range. Who else can win a 1500m title and then also finish 17th at the NCAA Cross Country Championships? 

Indoors, things got complicated.

He had a heavy workload in Birmingham at the NCAA Championships: mile, 3000m and distance medley relay. He took third in the mile, and looked gassed at the end of the meet. Outdoors, he posted a lifetime best at the Bryan Clay Invitational, running 3:37.20 to barely hold off Arizona’s Carlos Villarreal. Three weeks later, he was upset in the Big Ten Championships 1500m by Michigan State’s Justine Kiprotich. It was the first time since his freshman year that Hoare left a Big Ten meet without a track title. 

The fickleness of the 1500m goes both ways. Hoare doesn’t enter with an immortal undefeated streak or an air of inevitability, but he can still win. This field did catch a break when Geordie Beamish of NAU, this year’s indoor mile champion, opted to run the 5000m at not the 1500m.

With this group, it’s tough to call anyone a favorite, though Hoare did call out two people who caught his attention. “Carlos is looking dangerous. (Yared) Nuguse is looking dangerous.”

Villarreal, the junior from Arizona, is not just a kicker anymore. He looked phenomenal at the West Prelims, finding himself at the front with a lap remaining, and continued to push. His typical operating procedure is to stay way back at the bell and use death-defying tactics to work his way to the front. Perhaps he’s found an easier way. His 3:37 against Hoare proved he can run off a fast pace, and he might even be better served by an honest pace that thins out the field. 

Nuguse, the sophomore from Notre Dame, will make his first appearance in an individual event at an NCAA Championships. His biggest moments occurred on distance medley relays on the indoor track. After turning in the top qualifying performance from the East Prelim, a big moment individually seems imminent. He finished third behind Hoare and Villarreal at Bryan Clay with a 3:38.32.  

The next two men across the line in that race also fit Hoare’s criteria of dangerous. William Paulson of Arizona State made a huge jump after transferring from Princeton. He took fifth indoors, then enjoyed an outdoor season where he lowered his PR to 3:38.35 and won the Pac-12 title. Texas sophomore Sam Worley already owns a career’s worth of championship experience and will race at home. He’s appeared in three previous NCAA 1500m/mile championships with his best result coming last spring when he took fifth. Worley will be there when the kicking begins—that much seems likely. 

Beyond that group, Kiprotich and Waleed Suliman are capable of a top-three finish. Yes, beating Hoare at Big Tens counted as an upset, but just two years ago, Kiprotich finished runner-up to Kerr in this meet. Waleed Suliman of Ole Miss took ninth indoors and ran 3:38.72 to finish sixth at Bryan Clay. Casey Comber of Villanova finished ahead of Hoare to take second indoors. He’s one of the few contenders whose PR is north of 3:40. Indoors, he showed how little seed times mattered.  

Men’s 800m: Hoppel Tries To Extend His Win Streak, Can Dixon Win A Big One?

The two leading candidates in this race both sport resumes that confer an NCAA favorite. Devin Dixon of Texas A&M owns the fastest time of the season, the top lifetime best and undoubtedly the best top-end speed. Kansas’ Bryce Hoppel has won 17 races in a row and 11 finals--a streak that includes an indoor national title. 

He has an ability to accelerate at the most opportune moments and a seemingly innate talent for timing his rush for the finish line perfectly. The latter was in full effect at the West Prelim, when Hoppel came from way back to run down Dixon in the final stride. By that point, both men secured a spot in Austin and Dixon was far from all out. But it underscored how much Hoppel dislikes finishing anywhere other than first. 

The last time he didn’t cross the line first was at last year’s outdoor championships, where he placed fourth. Dixon took fifth in that race—an effort he described as “trash.” The junior from Texas A&M hasn’t had any more luck in championship races since then. Indoors, he was the big favorite by virtue of his 1:45.27 at the end of January. He entered the meet with the top time in the nation, big race experience and a top gear so good that he anchors Texas A&M’s 4x400m. 

But it didn’t matter. He looked flat in Birmingham, sliding from first to fourth just after the bell. Any positive news for Dixon, and he’s had plenty this outdoor season, is followed by questions of whether he can do it when it matters the most.  

At the SEC Championships, he ran a lifetime best of 1:44.76. Despite getting passed by Hoppel in Sacramento, he looked good at the West Prelim. 

Meanwhile, at the East Prelim, one of his top rivals, Marco Arop of Mississippi State, didn’t advance. But there are certainly men capable of making this more than a two-person race: Isaiah Jewett of USC, Jonah Koech of Texas Tech, Roshon Roomes and Festus Lagat have all run under 1:47 this season. 

For someone with big race struggles like Dixon, it’s hard to predict the scenario where they rid themselves of past shortcomings. Does a narrow list of contenders help him focus, or does it make him put too much emphasis on someone outside himself? Dixon looks most comfortable in the front, while Hoppel is a natural chaser. If they are even with 200m to go, it probably means that Hoppel has the advantage. This fact only heightens the importance of Dixon’s first 600m.

Men’s 3000m Steeplechase: Ali Goes For The Repeat

Take your pick here between the defending champion, Obsa Ali; the man with the fastest time in the NCAA, Ryan Smeeton; or the one on an incredible hot streak, Ed Trippas. And if you don’t like any those, there are five other men who ran under 8:37 at the preliminary round. 

Let’s start with Ali of Minnesota. 

He was the surprise winner last year, taking advantage of a late-season PR binge (and Brian Barraza’s fall over a barrier with 300 meters remaining), to win the NCAA title. He’s come back down to earth this year, but has remained at the top of the nation. 

Ali lowered his PR to 8:31.15 this year and then defended his Big Ten title, holding off a challenge from Indiana’s Daniel Michalski. He turned in the fastest time in the West Prelims, a comfortable 8:34.16 to finish just in front of his teammate, Alec Basten. Ali’s only issue is that the event has taken a step up from last year. In his 8:31 race at Payton Jordan, he was beaten—by over three seconds—by Oklahoma State’s Smeeton.

The sophomore had an inauspicious start to his career, then went from 8:41 to 8:27 over the course of four weeks. That run vaulted him to the top of the NCAA. At the West Prelim, he slipped charging out of the water barrier late in the race and lost time. But he weathered that to qualify through to Austin. 

Smeeton’s 14-second PR is only outdone by Ed Trippas' 16-second improvement. The sophomore from Princeton went from 8:50.09 in late April to 8:33.90 to win the East prelim. This will be his first NCAA track championship meet. Where he goes from here is anyone’s guess. Clearly, big improvements in short periods of time are common in the steeplechase (Basten had almost a nine-second PR at West Prelims). 

With Smeeton and Ali in the race, it looks like it will take a time under 8:30 to win, barring completely awful weather. Michalski’s 8:34.26 at Penn Relays is the fifth-best time in the season. BYU’s Matt Owens (sixth last year, just ahead of his teammate Clayson Shumway) was just over a second behind Ali at Payton Jordan and leads the four-man BYU contingent in this race. 

Alex Rogers and John Rice of Texas will be familiar with the conditions and ran 8:35 and 8:38 at prelims, respectively. Steven Fahy of Stanford, third at the NCAA Championships in 2018, hasn’t put up a huge time this year. He actually ranks higher in the 5000m than the steeplechase. But he ran like a veteran in the prelim, qualifying comfortably with an 8:39. 

One more name to watch is Kigen Chemadi of Middle Tennessee State. He ran 8:38.28 to win his heat by more than two seconds. This is his first year steepling, and has yet to be challenged. He’s won by margins of 16, 5, 8 and 2 seconds. How will he respond when he’s pushed for the entire 3000 meters?