WATCH THE 2016 DI NCAA XC CHAMPIONSHIPS LIVE ON FLOTRACK -- SATURDAY 11/19!

What is the key to an NCAA team title?

a) Having 1 or 2 low sticks
b) Having the best No. 5 runner
c) Having the best pack/low spread
d) Having the best depth

Answer: None of the above.

The No. 4 runner over the past 18 years has been the most important runner for the eventual NCAA team champion. Below are two tables of the past 18 NCAA men's/women's team champions, noting the place finish for each runner's position. For example, the 2015 Syracuse men had the third-best No. 1 runner, the second-best No. 2 runner, the top No. 3 runner, the second-best No. 4 runner, and the second-best No. 5 runner.

Year	Team	No. 1	No. 2	No. 3	No. 4	No. 5
2015	Syracuse	3	2	1	2	2
2014	Colorado	4	2	1	1	1
2013	Colorado	7	2	1	1	4
2012	Oklahoma St.	1	1	2	1	1
2011	Wisconsin	3	3	1	1	1
2010	Oklahoma St.	4	2	1	1	1
2009	Oklahoma St.	6	1	1	1	4
2008	Oregon	1	1	1	1	1
2007	Oregon	1	1	1	1	1
2006	Colorado	8	2	2	1	1
2005	Wisconsin	1	1	1	1	1
2004	Colorado	4	1	2	1	1
2003	Stanford	2	1	1	1	1
2002	Stanford	3	1	1	1	1
2001	Colorado	1	1	1	2	2
2000	Arkansas	10	2	1	1	1
1999	Arkansas	1	2	1	1	1
1998	Arkansas	5	3	2	1	1
	Average	3.61	1.61	1.22	1.11	1.44
Year	Team	No. 1	No. 2	No. 3	No. 4	No. 5
2015	New Mexico	4	1	1	1	1
2014	Michigan St.	4	2	1	1	1
2013	Providence	5	4	1	1	1
2012	Oregon	2	1	4	2	1
2011	Georgetown	3	10	3	2	1
2010	Villanova	1	2	2	1	2
2009	Villanova	6	1	1	1	1
2008	Washington	5	2	1	1	1
2007	Stanford	7	7	2	2	1
2006	Stanford	3	9	4	3	1
2005	Stanford	7	3	1	1	3
2004	Colorado	2	2	1	1	1
2003	Stanford	3	2	2	1	2
2002	BYU	3	2	2	1	1
2001	BYU	5	1	1	1	1
2000	Colorado	1	1	1	1	1
1999	BYU	6	4	2	1	1
1998	Villanova	8	3	1	1	3
	Average	4.17	3.17	1.72	1.28	1.33

The runner who has had the best average finish over the past 18 years was the No. 4 runner. This average proves that most team champions don't need to have the best No. 1 runner or the best No. 5 runner to win. The runner who consistently needed to perform better than all the other teams was the No. 4 runner.

So who has the best No. 4 runner heading into this year's championships? Here are our projected No. 4 runners for title-contending teams.

School	Projected No. 4	Conferences	Pre-Nats/Wisco	'15 NCAA	5K PB
NAU	Cory Glines	4th Big Sky	20th Wisco	DNQ	13:58
Colorado	Joe Klecker	19th Pac-12	24th Pre-Nats	Redshirt	13:44
Stanford	Garrett Sweatt	14th Pac-12	32nd Wisco	64th	13:54
Arkansas	Jack Bruce	4th SEC	12th Pre-Nats	23rd	13:54
BYU	Brayden McLelland	5th WCC	40th Wisco	Mission	N/A
Syracuse	Philo Germano	9th ACC	28th Wisco	39th	14:00
School	Projected No. 4	Conferences	Pre-Nats/Wisco	'15 NCAA	3K PB
Colorado	Makena Morley	9th Pac-12	26th Pre-Nats	97th	10:15*
N.C. State	Ryen Frazier	14th ACC	96th Wisco	108th	10:02*
Providence	Abbey Wheeler	8th Big East	52nd Wisco	H.S.	9:33
Michigan	Jamie Morrissey	25th Big Ten	51st Pre-Nats	180th	N/A
Stanford	Christina Aragon	14th Pac-12	41st Pre-Nats	H.S.	N/A
Washington	Kaitlyn Neal	21st Pac-12	34th Wisco	H.S.	9:29

*Two Mile Time

Looking at these athletes, it is hard to distinguish a clear front-runner. Arkansas' Jack Bruce and Colorado's Makena Morley have the best finish from this past year. Colorado's Joe Klecker and N.C. State's Ryen Frazier have the top track PBs. NAU's Cory Glines and Washington's Kaitlyn Neal have the best Wisconsin Invitational finish.

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