Since 1970, the New York City Marathon has been a staple of the marathon circuit, and in 2006, it became one of the coveted World Marathon Majors, with Sunday’s race marking 20 years since the series was formed.

What began as a 127-person race through loops of New York’s Central Park has evolved into the largest marathon of all time, with more than 59,000 finishers in 2025.

For decades, some of the greatest performances over 26.2 miles have come on the course through all five of the city’s boroughs, from Hellen Obiri’s course record last November to the miraculous recovery from Germán Silva in 1994.

This weekend, some of the greatest marathoners in the world will once again converge on the starting line in Staten Island, and while there are plenty of storylines to keep tabs on in the men’s race, few are as compelling as a reigning world champion who has never raced 26.2 miles before.

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That runner is Andreas Almgren, the 31-year-old Swede making his marathon debut on Sunday. He’s been on a tear this year, most recently winning the 2026 World Half Marathon title last month in 58:06, the No. 10 performance in world history and a new European record, improving on his own previous mark of 58:41 by 35 seconds. That World Half title came a month after he claimed the European 10,000m crown in Birmingham, where he took control early in the race and never gave it back, breaking the championship record in 27:23 and crossing the line 19 seconds clear of the field.

With a European title and a world title already in hand this year, Almgren could have easily closed out his season and turned his attention back to the track, but his decision to tackle the marathon now is part of a longer-term plan, as he intends to fully commit to the event after the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, when he’ll be 33, and wants a build or two under his belt beforehand so he can learn how his body responds.

“I don’t want to have this big transition period,” Almgren said. “I want to be able to dial in right away.” He also believes he has a high ceiling at 26.2 miles, noting that he has always raced well when moving up in distance, and if the marathon proves to be his best event, he wants the option of choosing it for Los Angeles, though he still plans to run a full track season next summer.

His confidence is backed by his track résumé, as Almgren holds the European 5000m record of 12:44.27, and his 26:52.87 PB is the quickest 10,000m any European-born athlete has ever run. Despite starting his career as a half-miler with a 1:45 PB, he has clearly found a home in the longer events, but the question now is how he’ll handle an entirely new distance, especially on a New York course widely considered one of the most challenging in the world.

New York wasn’t a random pick, as the European Championships in mid-August were Almgren’s top priority for 2026, which left New York and Valencia as the only realistic fall options with enough time for a proper build. Between the two, he wanted a race rather than a time trial, and he believes New York’s tactical nature fits where he’s at right now.

“I can just follow the front pack and then hopefully be strong in the end, because usually the first half is quite slow and then someone takes it on when we reach Manhattan,” Almgren said, adding that in Valencia, Yomif Kejelcha and John Korir would likely push the pace from the gun and leave him running alone. “It’s just no man’s land for the whole race.”

History offers mixed signals for World Half champions moving up to the marathon, as some have thrived in their debuts while others have fallen short of what they were hoping for. Almgren’s predecessor as World Half champion, current world record holder Sabastian Sawe (KEN), won the 2024 Valencia Marathon in 2:02:05, 14 months after claiming the world title in Latvia. Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo, the 2020 World Half champion, opened up his marathon career in 2:03:37 at last year’s London Marathon, where he finished runner-up behind Sawe.

On the other side of debuts like those, Eritrea’s Zersenay Tadese ran 2:12:03 for seventh at the 2010 London Marathon and Kenya’s Wilson Kiprop finished fifth in 2:09:09 in Prague that same year.

While recent history suggests a strong debut is well within reach, neither Sawe nor Kiplimo made his debut six weeks after running the fastest half of his career. Almgren also comes into the race older than the pair was at the time of their debuts, as Sawe was 29 and Kiplimo was 24.

That said, Almgren isn’t someone you can easily put in a box, and between his results this year and his own read on his buildup, there’s plenty of reason to believe he’s arriving in New York ready to compete.

“The training has gone really well,” Almgren said. “I’ve responded way better than I expected. The body feels good, I feel fresh.”

Still, there’s an element of the unknown in his approach, since his training philosophy avoids all-out workouts, meaning he rarely knows exactly what he’s capable of until race day. He said he usually gets a good read on his body early in a race, pointing to Copenhagen, where he felt almost no difference in fatigue between the 7k and 14k marks and knew he was in for a good day.

Should Almgren break the tape in Central Park, he would become the first European-born men’s champion in New York since Giacomo Leone in 1996 and the first man to win the race in his marathon debut since Gebre Gebremariam in 2010. The men he’ll have to beat know this course well, with two-time champion Geoffrey Kamworor and 2024 winner Abdi Nageeye both having won here before, while Deresa Geleta brings a 2:02:38 PB and Benson Kipruto returns as the defending champion.

Almgren isn’t bringing a time or place goal to the starting line, instead aiming to stay in contention for the win as long as he possibly can. 

“If I finish eighth, but I’m in the front group with 5K left and then I just completely blew up, I’m going to be more happy with that than finishing fifth knowing I gave up with 10K left but finished strong,” he said.

If the race unfolds the way he expects, with a patient first half and a hard push once the field reaches Manhattan, his track speed combined with his confidence could make him a dangerous presence over the closing miles. The Swede has very little to lose and should be taken seriously as a threat for the title despite it being the first marathon of his career, and whether the race turns into a sit-and-kick affair with a conservative early pace or a barnburner from the opening 5k, Almgren is someone to keep an eye on. The fact that it’s his debut may make him even more potent, since there are likely a few contenders at the top of the field who aren’t giving him the attention he deserves.

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