There's a reason that some of the top coaches in the nation take a peek at the Butler Projections prior to NCAAs. We keep reiterating that the system is Nate Silver-esque, but forget to follow-up with some evaluation. After all, a week in-between regionals and nationals doesn't usually give us a lot of time to look back.
Below, we've listed the top ten team and individual Butler Projections and their actual results. What you have to remember is "that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful." George Edward Pelham Box was right about a lot of things.
The men's race at the Northeast Regional would be an example that would make George E.P. Box smile. When we compared the projected team results to the actual results, things were mostly correctly aligned. With the exception of an underrated Syracuse and an overrated Northeastern, the top ten wasn't bad.
But before we could celebrate like NASA landing the Mars Rover, we scrolled down to the men's individual results. They should speak for themselves.
Still, we believe the model is correct. It's just not always accurate because, like Herm Edwards once told us, "you play to win the game." Or in cross country terms, "that's why you run the race."
We'll have the Butler Projections for the men's and women's NCAA Championship races later this week. But for now, take a look back at last week's attempt to predict the impossible.
Below, we've listed the top ten team and individual Butler Projections and their actual results. What you have to remember is "that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful." George Edward Pelham Box was right about a lot of things.
The men's race at the Northeast Regional would be an example that would make George E.P. Box smile. When we compared the projected team results to the actual results, things were mostly correctly aligned. With the exception of an underrated Syracuse and an overrated Northeastern, the top ten wasn't bad.
But before we could celebrate like NASA landing the Mars Rover, we scrolled down to the men's individual results. They should speak for themselves.
Still, we believe the model is correct. It's just not always accurate because, like Herm Edwards once told us, "you play to win the game." Or in cross country terms, "that's why you run the race."
We'll have the Butler Projections for the men's and women's NCAA Championship races later this week. But for now, take a look back at last week's attempt to predict the impossible.
| Women | Men |
| Northeast | Northeast |
| Southeast | Southeast |
| Midwest | Midwest |
| West | West |
| Mid-Atlantic | Mid-Atlantic |
| South | South |
| Great Lakes | Great Lakes |
| Mountain | Mountain |
| South Central |
South Central |