Happy New Year! 

Below, the FloTrack staff makes predictions for 2018 — with various levels of plausibility.  

Centro Breaks 1500m American Record

Illness and injury kept Matthew Centrowitz from following his Olympic gold with an exciting world performance in 2017, but don’t doubt that the younger Centro looks to redeem himself and leave a mark on 2018. 

A non-outdoor championship year is the perfect time to target fast times, and an American record is the only thing missing from Centro’s resume — plus, he has two new speedy training partners now, Clayton Murphy and Craig Engels. By the time the spring season rolls around, the 28-year-old’s personal best marks for the 1500m and mile will be three and four years old. He ran 3:30.40 for 1500m in 2015, which makes him the No. 3 performer in U.S. history behind Bernard Lagat (3:29.30 AR) and Sydney Maree (3:29.77), though it should be noted that both Lagat and Maree became American citizens later in their careers and are originally from Kenya and South Africa, respectively. 

Lagat’s American record converts to just under 3:46 for the mile, which is better than Alan Webb’s 2007 American record of 3:46.91. Conceivably, Centro could snag both records in the same race. Currently, his best for the full mile is 3:50.53, which makes him the ninth-best performer in U.S. history.

-Jojo 

Lolo Jones Finally Gets Her Olympic Medal

U.S. track athletes know that the only event more difficult than an Olympic final is the U.S. final and competing for your spot on the team versus other American athletes. That’s the position that Olympic hurdler-turned-bobsledder Lolo Jones has currently found herself in. Team USA will not make final selections for the 2018 Pyeongchang Games until later in January, but she has a strong shot after making the podium in multiple World Cup events last year. 

Two-time Olympic medalist Elana Meyers Taylor, who earned silver with former track world champion Lauryn Williams in 2014, said of Jones to USA Today, “I think with her track speed, she adds that velocity to the back of the sled, and that’s the biggest thing we’re looking for is making sure to carry down the track.” 

The 35-year-old Jones is a three-time Olympian; she made two Olympic finals in the 100m hurdles but faltered to seventh at the 2008 Beijing Games after clipping a hurdle and fourth at the 2012 London Games. She placed 11th in the bobsled at the 2014 Sochi Games, her first Winter Olympics.

We predict she’ll make the team and partner with Meyers, whose experience will take them to a medal in South Korea — and maybe even a gold, which would be Meyers’ first.

-Jojo

Keturah Orji Sweeps Triple, Long Jumps At NCAAs

The University of Georgia’s Keturah Orji is easily the best and most dominant triple jumper that the NCAA has ever seen; she broke a 19-year-old collegiate record in the event as a sophomore and currently owns the top six marks ever recorded in the event by a college athlete. There’s little doubt she’ll earn her sixth and seventh consecutive NCAA titles in the indoor and outdoor triple jumps this year, so the more interesting inquiry is whether or not she can double up and win the long jump. She came close last outdoor season, earning a runner-up finish in Eugene behind teammate Kate Hall.

Fellow Bulldogs Hall and Tara Davis, a true freshman, will likely present the biggest challenge to an Orji sweep. Hall jumped 6.83m/22-5 to break the national high school record in 2015, which still stands as her PB; Davis jumped 6.68m/21-11 to break the national prep indoor record this year, and set her outdoor PB at 6.72m/22-1 — which matches Orji’s personal best.

-Jojo

An American Woman Wins The Boston Marathon

It’s too early to tell now, but 2017 will either turn out to be the lightning flash that sparked a revolution in American marathoning, or a flash-in-the-pan year that we don’t see the likes of again for another 20 years. I’m going with the former, and despite defending Boston Marathon champion Edna Kiplagat scheduled to make her return to Boylston Street in 2018, I think an American will dethrone her and take the title for the first time since Lisa Rainsberger’s win in 1985. 

The harder pick may be selecting the woman for the job, as there is a slew of worthy contenders set for Boston 2018, including Shalane Flanagan, who defeated Kiplagat at the New York City Marathon this fall for her first world major marathon victory; Jordan Hasay, who followed her stunning third-place marathon debut at Boston with a blazing 2:20:57 third-place run in Chicago; Molly Huddle, the American record holder over 10K who placed third in her debut marathon at New York in 2016; and Desi Linden, a two-time Olympian in the marathon whose runner-up finish at Boston in 2011 was the best American finish since Rainsberger.

Age is just a number, certainly, but it’s worth noting that Kiplagat will be 38 years old on race day, while Flanagan will be 36, Hasay 26, Huddle 33, and Linden 34.

-Jojo

Shadrack Kipchirchir Breaks Galen Rupp’s 10K American Record

Shaddy ran 27:07 at the IAAF World Championships last year. But 2018 is an off-year, meaning 2018 will be the year to chase personal bests. Shaddy will aim for a sub-27 performance but will end up over achieving and nip Galen Rupp’s 26:44 mark by a second or two.

-Gordon 

Emmanuel Korir Runs Sub-1:41 800m

If it wasn’t for a late season hamstring injury, Emmanuel Korir would have won the 2017 world title in my opinion. With that said, I truly believe Korir is the next David Rudisha but with more speed! 

After all, he did split 43.34 in a 4x4 last year! Korir will not have to worry about peaking for NCAA championships this year thus allowing him to fully recover and rip off the second ever sub-1:41 800m in world history. Screw it! I’m willing to say that Emmanuel Korir will run 1:39.99 by 2020.

-Gordon

Iowa State Men Win The NCAA DMR Title

Martin Smith has something special brewing in Ames, Iowa. After a strong seventh-place finish at NCAA XC with a very young squad, he will follow it up with a DMR team title in 2018.

The Cyclones’ Potential DMR athletes:

400 PBs

46.71 JR Eric Fogltanz

46.98 SO Roshon Roomes

800 PBs

1:47.69 SO Roshon Roomes

1:47.63 SR Jaymes Dennison

1000 PBs

2:23.91 SO Zach Black

2:24.95 JR Dan Curts

Mile PBs *including altitude and 1500m conversions

4:01.37 SO Festus Lagat (Went 21-0 at the JUCO level in track finals including a wins over Dillon Maggard and Gilbert Kigen)

4:01.56 JR Dan Curts

4:02.58 SO Zach Black

-Gordon

Brodey Hasty Runs Sub-4 mile

This is a no-brainer.

-Gordon

Eliud Kipchoge Will Lose A Marathon

This hasn’t happened since 2013, and during that time Kipchoge has run off seven victories in a row (eight if you count the Breaking2 race last May). This run has vaulted him into the rightful discussion of greatest marathoner of all time, but the men’s marathon is too deep for it to last much longer. 

As dominant as Kipchoge has been the past five years, he looked his most vulnerable this fall when Guye Adola led late in the race in Berlin. I don’t think the loss will spell the end of Kipchoge’s reign; rather it will speak to just how difficult it is to stay atop for multiple years in an event as competitive as the marathon. 

-Kevin

A Man Outside Of The U.S. Or Jamaica Will Have The Fastest Time In The World In The 100m

The last time this happened was 2003 when Australia’s Patrick Johnson ended the year with the best mark. The most likely candidate to get the top spot in 2018 is Andre De Grasse of Canada. 

De Grasse ran a wind-aided 9.69 last season and looked to be a contender for gold at the World Championships before a pre-meet injury left him unable to compete. The presence of De Grasse combined with a post-Bolt Jamaica devoid of any gold medal candidates means this could be the year someone outside the United States or Jamaica is the fastest man of the year. 

-Kevin

Christian Taylor Will Set The World Record In The Triple Jump

Taylor only needs to PR by eight centimeters to tie the world record, so this maybe isn’t that bold. But if it was easy to triple jump 18.29m then the record would not have lasted 22 years and counting. 

The last non-championship year, Taylor ran some 400s (quite quickly, I might add) in addition to his normal jumping schedule. If he sticks with the triple jump this year, I think the weather and competition will finally align for Taylor. Since 2015, he’s been knocking on the door with five jumps over 18 meters. I think this is the year Taylor finds a way to get beyond 18.28m. 

-Kevin