Events Where The NCAA Champion Could Be Better Than The World Champion

With the 2018 IAAF World Indoor Championships in the books and the 2018 NCAA Indoor Championships just around the corner, we decided to predict the odds in every event in which the NCAA champion will run, jump, or throw a superior mark to the mark that won a world indoor title.

Note: For this exercise we ignored the 800, 1500, and 3K due to the tactical nature of those events where the final time doesn't always represent the full ability of the winner.

We believe at least three events (M 400, W 400, M 60H) have a strong likelihood of the NCAA champion running superior to the world champion's performance.

EVENTWORLD CHAMPIONMARK%WHO WOULD BEAT IT?
400Pavel Maslák (CZE)45.4795%The Field
400Courtney Okolo (USA)50.5575%Kendall Ellis, Sydney McLaughlin, Lynna Irby
60HAndrew Pozzi (GBR)7.4650%Grant Holloway
4x4Poland3:01.7725%USC, Florida, Texas A&M
TJYulimar Rojas (VEN)14.63m10%Keturah Orji
HJDanil Lysenko (RUS)2.36m5%Trey Culver, Vernon Turner
HEPKevin Mayer (FRA)6,3483%Tim Duckworth
PENKatarina Johnson-Thompson (GBR)4,7503%Taliyah Brooks
PVRenaud Lavillenie (FRA)5.90m3%Chris Nisen
LJIvana Španović (SRB)6.96m1%Kate Hall
SPAnita Márton (HUN)19.62m1%Maggie Ewen
60Christian Coleman (USA)6.370%-
60Murielle Ahouré (CIV)6.970%-
4x4United States3:23.850%-
60HKendra Harrison (USA)7.700%-
HJMariya Lasitskene (RUS)2.01m0%-
LJJuan Miguel Echevarría (CUB)8.46m0%-
PVSandi Morris (USA)4.95m0%-
SPTomas Walsh (NZL)22.31m0%-
TJWill Claye (USA)17.43m0%-
800Adam Kszczot (POL)1:47.47N/A-
800Francine Niyonsaba (BDI)1:58.31N/A-
1500Samuel Tefera (ETH)3:58.19N/A-
1500Genzebe Dibaba (ETH)4:05.27N/A-
3KYomif Kejelcha (ETH)8:14.41N/A-
3KGenzebe Dibaba (ETH)8:45.05N/A-

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