2018 DI NCAA Indoor ChampionshipsMar 7, 2018 by Gordon Mack
Events Where The NCAA Champion Could Be Better Than The World Champion
Events Where The NCAA Champion Could Be Better Than The World Champion
Forecasting which NCAA events could result in a better performance than worlds.
With the 2018 IAAF World Indoor Championships in the books and the 2018 NCAA Indoor Championships just around the corner, we decided to predict the odds in every event in which the NCAA champion will run, jump, or throw a superior mark to the mark that won a world indoor title.
Note: For this exercise we ignored the 800, 1500, and 3K due to the tactical nature of those events where the final time doesn't always represent the full ability of the winner.
We believe at least three events (M 400, W 400, M 60H) have a strong likelihood of the NCAA champion running superior to the world champion's performance.
| EVENT | WORLD CHAMPION | MARK | % | WHO WOULD BEAT IT? |
| 400 | Pavel Maslák (CZE) | 45.47 | 95% | The Field |
| 400 | Courtney Okolo (USA) | 50.55 | 75% | Kendall Ellis, Sydney McLaughlin, Lynna Irby |
| 60H | Andrew Pozzi (GBR) | 7.46 | 50% | Grant Holloway |
| 4x4 | Poland | 3:01.77 | 25% | USC, Florida, Texas A&M |
| TJ | Yulimar Rojas (VEN) | 14.63m | 10% | Keturah Orji |
| HJ | Danil Lysenko (RUS) | 2.36m | 5% | Trey Culver, Vernon Turner |
| HEP | Kevin Mayer (FRA) | 6,348 | 3% | Tim Duckworth |
| PEN | Katarina Johnson-Thompson (GBR) | 4,750 | 3% | Taliyah Brooks |
| PV | Renaud Lavillenie (FRA) | 5.90m | 3% | Chris Nisen |
| LJ | Ivana Španović (SRB) | 6.96m | 1% | Kate Hall |
| SP | Anita Márton (HUN) | 19.62m | 1% | Maggie Ewen |
| 60 | Christian Coleman (USA) | 6.37 | 0% | - |
| 60 | Murielle Ahouré (CIV) | 6.97 | 0% | - |
| 4x4 | United States | 3:23.85 | 0% | - |
| 60H | Kendra Harrison (USA) | 7.70 | 0% | - |
| HJ | Mariya Lasitskene (RUS) | 2.01m | 0% | - |
| LJ | Juan Miguel Echevarría (CUB) | 8.46m | 0% | - |
| PV | Sandi Morris (USA) | 4.95m | 0% | - |
| SP | Tomas Walsh (NZL) | 22.31m | 0% | - |
| TJ | Will Claye (USA) | 17.43m | 0% | - |
| 800 | Adam Kszczot (POL) | 1:47.47 | N/A | - |
| 800 | Francine Niyonsaba (BDI) | 1:58.31 | N/A | - |
| 1500 | Samuel Tefera (ETH) | 3:58.19 | N/A | - |
| 1500 | Genzebe Dibaba (ETH) | 4:05.27 | N/A | - |
| 3K | Yomif Kejelcha (ETH) | 8:14.41 | N/A | - |
| 3K | Genzebe Dibaba (ETH) | 8:45.05 | N/A | - |