Events Where The NCAA Champion Could Be Better Than The World Champion

Forecasting which NCAA events could result in a better performance than worlds.

Mar 7, 2018 by Gordon Mack

Events Where The NCAA Champion Could Be Better Than The World Champion

With the 2018 IAAF World Indoor Championships in the books and the 2018 NCAA Indoor Championships just around the corner, we decided to predict the odds in every event in which the NCAA champion will run, jump, or throw a superior mark to the mark that won a world indoor title.

Note: For this exercise we ignored the 800, 1500, and 3K due to the tactical nature of those events where the final time doesn't always represent the full ability of the winner.

We believe at least three events (M 400, W 400, M 60H) have a strong likelihood of the NCAA champion running superior to the world champion's performance.

EVENT	WORLD CHAMPION	MARK	%	WHO WOULD BEAT IT?
400	Pavel Maslák (CZE)	45.47	95%	The Field
400	Courtney Okolo (USA)	50.55	75%	Kendall Ellis, Sydney McLaughlin, Lynna Irby
60H	Andrew Pozzi (GBR)	7.46	50%	Grant Holloway
4x4	Poland	3:01.77	25%	USC, Florida, Texas A&M
TJ	Yulimar Rojas (VEN)	14.63m	10%	Keturah Orji
HJ	Danil Lysenko (RUS)	2.36m	5%	Trey Culver, Vernon Turner
HEP	Kevin Mayer (FRA)	6,348	3%	Tim Duckworth
PEN	Katarina Johnson-Thompson (GBR)	4,750	3%	Taliyah Brooks
PV	Renaud Lavillenie (FRA)	5.90m	3%	Chris Nisen
LJ	Ivana Španović (SRB)	6.96m	1%	Kate Hall
SP	Anita Márton (HUN)	19.62m	1%	Maggie Ewen
60	Christian Coleman (USA)	6.37	0%	-
60	Murielle Ahouré (CIV)	6.97	0%	-
4x4	United States	3:23.85	0%	-
60H	Kendra Harrison (USA)	7.70	0%	-
HJ	Mariya Lasitskene (RUS)	2.01m	0%	-
LJ	Juan Miguel Echevarría (CUB)	8.46m	0%	-
PV	Sandi Morris (USA)	4.95m	0%	-
SP	Tomas Walsh (NZL)	22.31m	0%	-
TJ	Will Claye (USA)	17.43m	0%	-
800	Adam Kszczot (POL)	1:47.47	N/A	-
800	Francine Niyonsaba (BDI)	1:58.31	N/A	-
1500	Samuel Tefera (ETH)	3:58.19	N/A	-
1500	Genzebe Dibaba (ETH)	4:05.27	N/A	-
3K	Yomif Kejelcha (ETH)	8:14.41	N/A	-
3K	Genzebe Dibaba (ETH)	8:45.05	N/A	-