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2026 Chicago Marathon

Chicago Marathon Prediction And Picks - What Does The Windy City Have In Store

Chicago Marathon Prediction And Picks - What Does The Windy City Have In Store

John Davern makes his official predictions and picks for the 2026 Bank of Chicago Marathon, while providing some quick hitters and analysis for the weekend.

Oct 8, 2026 by John Davern
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Inside America's Marathon Underdogs, One Final Test Before Chicago 2026 With Hansons-Brooks ODP11:54

The 2026 Bank of America Chicago Marathon weekend is here - and excitement is through the roof. World and American Records are on watch, but so is the weather forecast with constantly changing temperatures, wind and now maybe rain.

That could make it hard to predict what is about to unfold - but John Davern is here to break down the action and make his predictions for Sunday’s finishes.

Overall Men’s - Jacob Kiplimo, 2:00:45

Kiplimo will be the heavy favorite on raceday. His 2026 accolades include a World XC Championship Title, a Half Marathon World Record and a 2:00:28 finish at the London Marathon.

He is more than capable of dipping below 2:00:00 but I think the weather conditions are currently too unpredictable to make that call.

They have been consistently changing and now rain has entered the fold.

With high humidity in the morning - I fear that optimal conditions may miss us on Sunday, which is even more concerning because I’m also supposed to toe the line on Sunday.

It’s weird having skin in the game.

Overall Women’s - Sharon Lokedi, 2:16:51

This one was tough. Lokedi doesn’t even have one of the five fastest personal bests in this year’s Chicago Marathon Field, but I think conditions are favorable for a Sharon Lokedi win.

It is hard betting against Brigid Kosgei who has won back-to-back marathons (Shanghai and Tokyo) in 2:16:36 and 2:14:29 - but Lokedi has a knack for taking what the race will give her.

With back-to-back Boston Marathon wins, a fourth place finish at the 2024 Olympic Games and a silver at the 2025 New York City Marathon - Lokedi is consistently at the forefront of the World’s top marathons.

With mixed conditions in the conversation - I like her grittiness out front.

Top American Man - Charles Hicks, 2:04:26

That’s right - I’m predicting that the American Record will fall in Chicago.

Hicks has looked stellar in Boston as he ran 2:04:35. Of course, he was aided by a tailwind on that blustery day, but if his Instagram page is any indication, he is in really really good shape.

I was tempted to go Vinny Mauri in this match-up but I think the experience in Marathon Majors will pay dividends for a guy like Hicks who may have better self-control in an advanced field. Let’s not forget that Mauri’s 2:05 was a solo-effort.

Clayton Young is banged up with a hamstring injury - I think that bites him on Sunday.

Top American Woman - Susanna Sullivan, 2:22:10

Despite a disappointing 19th at the 2026 Boston Marathon - Sullivan feels like the correct pick on Sunday.

In 2025, Sullivan was 10th at the London Marathon before she finished fourth at the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo. She added an 11th place showing at the TCS New York City Marathon in November.

Notably - she hasn’t posted a time faster than 2:28:00 since the 2024 Chicago Marathon when she ran 2:21:56. I think the streets of Chicago will be the catalyst to get her back to those times this year.

2026 Chicago Marathon Men's Entries

  • Jacob Kiplimo, Uganda, 2:00:28
  • Amos Kipruto, Kenya, 2:01:39
  • Milkesa Mengesha, Ethiopia, 2:03:17
  • Tadese Takele Bikila, Ethiopia, 2:03:23
  • Bashir Abdi, Belgium, 2:03:36
  • Daniel Mateiko, Kenya, 2:03:44
  • Asrar Hiyrden, Ethiopia, 2:03:59
  • Charles Hicks, USA, 2:04:35
  • Suguru Osako, Japan, 2:04:55
  • Mohamed Reda El Aaraby, Morocco, 2:05:18
  • Clayton Young, USA, 2:05:41
  • Sondre Moen, Norway, 2:05:48
  • Vincent Mauri, USA, 2:05:54
  • Yemane Haileselassie, Eritrea, 2:06:06
  • Galen Rupp, USA, 2:06:07
  • Akira Akasaki, Japan, 2:06:15
  • Boki Diriba, Ethiopia, 2:06:26
  • Hendrik Pfeiffer, Germany, 2:06:34
  • Abbabiya Simbassa, USA, 2:06:53
  • Tsegay Weldlibanos, Eritrea, 2:07:35
  • Haftu Knight, USA, 2:07:38
  • Patrick Tiernan, Australia, 2:07:45
  • Kiyoshi Koga, Japan, 2:07:46
  • Matthew Richtman, USA, 2:07:57
  • CJ Albertson, USA, 2:08:17
  • Daniel Mesfun, USA, 2:08:24
  • Alex Maier, USA, 2:08:33
  • Murphy Smith, USA, 2:08:58
  • Jorge Castelblanco, Panama, 2:09:24
  • Thomas Nobbs, Canada, 2:09:25
  • Nadeel Wildschutt, South Africa, 2:09:40
  • Jorge Luis Cruz, Mexico, 2:09:43
  • Brian Shrader, USA, 2:09:46
  • Reed Fischer, USA, 2:09:47
  • Ben Rosa, USA, 2:09:47
  • Frank Lara, USA, 2:09:53
  • Ryan Johnson, USA, 2:10:20
  • Tesfu Tewelde, Eritrea, 2:10:21
  • Thomas Fafard, Canada, 2:10:29
  • Nathan Martin, USA, 2:10:45
  • Chris Maxon, USA, 2:10:55
  • Patrick Cullen, USA, 2:12:15
  • Afeworki Zeru, USA, 2:13:22
  • Ethan Gregg, USA, 2:13:32
  • Awet Beraki, USA, 2:14:13
  • Benjamin Flanagan, Canada, 2:15:39
  • Brian Kibor, Kenya, Debut
  • Tomoki Ota, Japan, Debut
  • Cole Sprout, USA, Debut
  • Kieran Tuntivate, Thailand, Debut
  • Adriaan Wildschutt, South Africa, Debut

2026 Chicago Marathon Women's Entries

  • Brigid Kosgei, Kenya, 2:14:04
  • Hawi Feysa, Ethiopia, 2:14:57
  • Sutume Kebede, Ethiopia, 2:15:55
  • Megertu Alemu, Ethiopia, 2:16:34
  • Brillian Kipkoech, Kenya, 2:17:05
  • Sharon Lokedi, Kenya, 2:17:22
  • Degitu Azimeraw, Ethiopia, 2:17:58
  • Loice Chemnung, Kenya, 2:18:24
  • Joan Kilimo, Kenya, 2:18:40
  • Magdalyne Masai, Kenya, 2:18:58
  • Fantu Worku, Ethiopia, 2:19:08
  • Mary Ngugi Cooper, Kenya, 2:19:26
  • Sara Hall, USA, 2:20:32
  • Yuka Akasaki, Japan, 2:21:33
  • Susanna Sullivan, USA, 2:21:56
  • Des Linden, USA, 2:22:38
  • Isobel Batt-Doyle, Australia, 2:22:59
  • Sara Vaughn, USA, 2:23:24
  • Natosha Rogers, USA, 2:23:28
  • Molly Born, USA, 2:24:10
  • Dakotah Popehn, USA, 2:24:20
  • Gabriella Rooker, USA, 2:24:29
  • Elena Hayday, USA, 2:24:45
  • Jess Warner-Judd, Great Britain, 2:24:45
  • Kristine Eikrem Engeset, Norway, 2:28:57
  • Lexie Thompson, USA, 2:30:37
  • Amanda Mosborg, USA, 2:32:01
  • Alexandra Aldana, Colombia, 2:40:41
  • Laura Galvan, Mexico, Debut
  • Emma Grace Hurley, USA, Debut
  • Amy-Eloise Neale, Great Britain, Debut

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