By Lincoln Shryack

Men's Least Surprising: Galen Rupp Dominates The Last 4 Miles In Debut 

Rupp’s utter domination from mile 22 to the finish line was really no surprise even in his first race longer than 13.1 miles. As one of the top-five 10k runners in the world, and by far the best American in history over 25 laps on the track, the 29-year-old held a tremendous advantage in late-race speed over the rest of the contenders. 

Given the ease with which he ran his 61:20 half qualifier, and that the heat was sure to keep the pace slow for most of the race, I expected Rupp to have plenty left to finish strong. His 4:47 from 22 to 23 miles proved to be the nail in the coffin— he cruised in alone from there.

Welcome to the Galen Rupp show. #LA2016 pic.twitter.com/ekHQzvqGe5

— FloTrack (@FloTrack) February 13, 2016

As we discussed at length before the race, only two men— Meb Keflezighi and Dathan Ritzenhein— had ever run faster than 2:10 entering the Trials, and no American ran under that barrier period in 2015. That hadn’t happened since 2003. Rupp was not encountering a strong field in his first marathon.  

With Rupp in the prime of his career, and certainly Meb, and probably Ritz too, past it, anything other than the outcome that played out Saturday would have required Rupp having a bad race, something that rarely occurs for the 10,000m silver medalist.          

Even with his experience edge, Meb wasn’t likely to beat Rupp unless the latter took off at too quick of a clip early and faded over the final miles. As expected, Rupp hung back early, then he covered Tyler Pennel’s move to remain in contact, and slammed the door on Meb by unleashing his most powerful weapon— speed.

Men's Most Surprising: Dathan Ritzenhein DNF's For The First Time Since 2004

Though a whopping 61 (61!) men dropped out of the Trials, most I assume due to the heat, it was shocking to see Dathan Ritzenhein among them. After all, the last time Ritz didn’t finish a race was the 2004 Olympic 10,000m final, where a fractured foot made that outcome predictable. This time though, the 33-year-old was ready— even despite a hip injury compromising his training a few months before the Trials, the three-time Olympian reported that he was healthy and workouts had been going well right before the Trials. 

With the only sub-2:08 PR in the field, and coming off a good one last April in Boston, this was a team Ritz seem destined to make. 

Cramps, not an injury, forced Ritz to call it a day for the first time ever in a marathon, as their early arrival and severity were like nothing he had experienced before. I figured something was wrong when Ritz didn’t join Rupp and Meb in following Tyler Pennel’s push at mile 16, and as it turns out the cramping was slashing Ritz’s legs seven miles earlier, much too soon to be dealt with all the way to the finish. He dropped out before reaching 21 miles. 

“It was just so early. It wasn’t survival like at the end of a marathon. It was like, something is really wrong going on here,” Ritzenhein told MLive.com’s Peter Wallner.

Even with the heat sitting there as a viable scapegoat for his untimely affliction, Ritzenhein wasn’t buying it. “I didn’t feel uncomfortable,” he told Wallner. “It was warmer but the pace was so slow that it wasn’t an issue.”

The slow pace in Los Angeles certainly made for an odd setting for Ritz’s first ever marathon DNF, and even now days later, it’s a mystery that continues to give me pause. So many variables can cause a marathon to go south in a hurry, but for it to happen on such a tremendous stage to a proven vet for no explicable reason has to be the biggest surprise even among a sea of non-finishers.

By Taylor Dutch

Women's Least Surprising: The Top-3

True to form, the women with the three fastest qualifying times in the race and the most recent marathon success all punched their tickets to Rio, making for a predictable Team USA line-up. Amy Cragg, Desi Linden, and Shalane Flanagan entered the Trials with recent marathon marks of 2:27, 2:23, and 2:21, respectively, and got the job done on Saturday.

Cragg had a breakout performance to improve upon her 2012 fourth-place finish with a win while Linden executed a conservative approach to claim second, and Flanagan managed to overcome a late bout of exhaustion to battle her way to third-place and claim the final spot on Team USA. Kara Goucher also had a standout performance as the 2012 Olympian just barely missed making the team with a fourth-place finish. Despite battling injuries for much of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, the performance was reflective of Goucher’s extensive championship racing experience. While the names on the top three line-up of Team USA are not surprising given each athlete’s past Olympic experience, it was Cragg’s title-winning performance that left audiences in awe.

Women's Most Surprising: Amy Cragg Wins

With just the third-fastest qualifying time in the field and a fourth-place 2012 Trials finish to her name, few people picked Amy Cragg to claim the victory on Saturday on the streets of Los Angeles. But Cragg left everyone speechless when she pulled away with Flanagan at the 11 mile mark and later ahead of Flanagan with a mile remaining in the race. Cragg’s personal best of 2:27 is nearly six minutes slower than defending champion and Bowerman TC training partner Flanagan, but the stats didn’t matter on Saturday as Cragg raced like a champion in adverse conditions to earn her second Olympic Trials title (she won the 10,000m in 2012). Not only did she break the tape for herself, but Cragg remained at the finish line to catch her teammate as she collapsed at the line for third, making for a classic Trials moment.

Shalane Flanagan left everything on the course. She's an Olympian once more #LA2016 pic.twitter.com/TAmS7dg4ai

— FloTrack (@FloTrack) February 13, 2016