FloTrack Predicts The 500th U.S. Sub-4 Miler

Last week, Donavan Brazier became the 493rd American to break four minutes in the mile. We've seen a total of 68 Americans run sub-four for the first time over the past three years. Therefore, it is very likely that the 500th American to break four minutes will do it during this upcoming indoor season.

Who will the 500th athlete be?

First, we need to take a look at potential first-time sub-four milers in 2018. Below is a list of Americans who ran a 1500 or mile that converts to 4:02 or faster in 2017.

Potential First Time Sub-4 Milers In 2018:

2017 Best Mile/1500Mile ConversionAthlete
4:01.49A3:55.60Ben Saarel
4:01.72A3:55.82Joe Klecker
3:39.533:57.09Charlie Marquardt
3:39.563:57.12David Ribich
3:39.823:57.41David Timlin
4:03.54A3:58.23Dillon Maggard
3:40.593:58.24Austin Tamagno
3:40.603:58.25Garrett O'Toole
3:40.733:58.39Jeff Thies
3:40.783:58.44Scott Snow
3:40.853:58.52Alex Rogers
3:41.213:58.91Caleb Hoover
4:07.52A#3:59.13Diego Leon
3:41.443:59.16Will Crocker
3:41.683:59.41Chase Horrocks
3:41.763:59.50Kasey Knevelbaard
3:42.123:59.89MJ Erb
4:00.084:00.08Ethan Homan
3:42.374:00.16Jesse Reiser
4:00.164:00.16Cooper Teare
3:42.464:00.26Christian Delago
3:42.504:00.30Mick Stanovsek
3:42.524:00.32Kyle Burdick
4:00.374:00.37Kyle Mau
3:42.604:00.41Arturo Sotomayor
4:00.474:00.47Trevor Gilley
3:42.664:00.47Isaac Garcia-Cassani
4:00.504:00.50Brandon Hazouri
4:00.604:00.60Luis Vargas
4:00.614:00.61Sam Worley
3:42.814:00.63Shane Streich
4:00.654:00.65Eric Holt
4:00.654:00.65Brian Shrader
3:42.864:00.69Austin O'Neil
3:42.874:00.70Sydney Gidabuday
4:00.734:00.73D.J. Principe
3:42.904:00.73Ryan Adams
3:42.954:00.79Jefferson Abbey
3:42.964:00.80Brandon Doughty
4:00.874:00.87Jack Thomas
3:43.084:00.93Daniel Gagne
3:43.094:00.94Kyle Medina
3:43.164:01.01Eric van der Els
4:01.044:01.04Vincent Ciattei
4:01.084:01.08Jon Davis
3:43.264:01.12Carl Hirsch
3:43.344:01.21Marcus Dickson
3:43.454:01.33Derek Wiebke
3:43.464:01.34Austin Anaya
3:43.484:01.36Matt Dorsey
4:01.464:01.46Kevin Greene
3:43.584:01.47Octavio Davila
3:43.624:01.51Nick Rivera
3:43.634:01.52Jack Guyton
4:01.554:01.55Patrick Gregory
3:43.674:01.56Dan Curts
3:43.704:01.60Michael Hall
4:01.764:01.76Brodey Hasty
3:43.894:01.80Blake Nelson
3:43.984:01.90Christopher Marco
4:01.914:01.91Luis Romero
3:44.014:01.93Dan Castle

After analyzing these 62 athletes' potential 2018 indoor seasons, we've come up with this list for the next seven U.S. sub-4 milers.

#AthleteMeetDate
494Brandon HazouriSamford Collegiate InvitationalJAN 19TH
495Eric HoltBU John Thomas Terrier ClassicJAN 27TH
496Ethan HomanBU John Thomas Terrier ClassicJAN 27TH
497Charlie MarquardtDr. Sander InvitationalJAN 27TH
498Trevor GilleyRazorback InvitationalJAN 27TH
499Ben SaarelUW InvitationalJAN 27TH
500Joe KleckerUW InvitationalJAN 27TH

In this scenario, the UW Invitational mile will be the race to decide who will become the 500th American to break four minutes in the mile and the action will be LIVE on FloTrack!

Watch last year's UW Invitational mile, which was won by Justyn Knight:

Men's Mile, Round 1 Heat 5


PLAY NOW: 2018 FloXC Fantasy League

Introducing the season long FloXC fantasy league. A chance for you to compete against the FloTrack staff and be in the running to win a FloPRO subscription for a year!

Oregon Shows Off Their Revamped Roster | NCAA XC Recap

NCAA XC: Dynasties On The Line

There was a point in the summer when the Oregon women’s cross country team appeared to be on shaky ground. When the 2018 cross country roster was released in August, it lacked Katie Rainsberger and Lilli Burdon—two All-Americans at the core of a Ducks squad primed for another top-five finish at the national championships. 

NCAA XC DII/DIII Recap: DIII Showdown Will Shake Up Rankings

NCAA XC: Dynasties On The Line

It was a relatively quiet week in the NCAA cross country scene, as most teams rested while looking forward to a busy weekend to come. A majority of the top squads in DII and DIII raced the previous weekend, so a softer slate of meets was to be expected.

Top XC Freshmen In The NCAA So Far...

NCAA XC: Dynasties On The Line

As we head into the last week of September, let's take a look at the top freshmen and redshirt freshmen in the nation who have made their NCAA XC debuts.

Crazy Depth: BYU's JV Team Could Finish Top 15 At NCAAs

NCAA XC: Dynasties On The Line

If any team has a shot to dethrone the two-time defending NCAA champions, the Northern Arizona men, at nationals this November, it’s No. 2-ranked BYU. 

Anatomy Of A NCAA Women's Championships XC Team

NCAA XC: Dynasties On The Line

Last week, we dug into the last 20 years of the men's results from the NCAA Cross Country Championships to identify some commonalities among the championship teams. The analysis didn’t yield definitive rules to win a title, but it did provide some guidelines.

Join PRO Now to Get Unlimited Access to FloTrack!

Join Now

Already a PRO Member? Log In

How Men's XC All-Americans Fare The Following Season

NCAA XC: Dynasties On The Line

The standard for individual excellence in NCAA cross country is quite clear: finish in the top 40 at nationals. By doing so, an athlete earns All-American status, a title that carries significant weight on a distance runner’s résumé.

Join PRO Now to Get Unlimited Access to FloTrack!

Join Now

Already a PRO Member? Log In

Amid Harsh Criticism, WADA Reinstates Russian Anti-Doping Agency

The World Anti-Doping Agency removed the ban on Russia’s anti-doping agency on Thursday, setting off a wave of criticism in the athletic community. The ban was enacted in 2015 after reports of widespread state-sponsored doping.

Jordan Hasay Opens Up After Withdrawing From Second Marathon In 5 Months

Jordan Hasay of the Nike Oregon Project has dropped out of October’s Chicago Marathon, her second withdrawal from a major marathon in five months, and once again due to a calcaneal stress fracture in the heel of her left foot.

House Of Run: Where Does Kipchoge, And The Marathon, Go From Here?

Jason and Kevin discuss Eliud Kipchoge’s destruction of the marathon world record, how his career will be viewed in the future, the next race he will run and the prospect of a sub-two-hour marathon.