FloTrack Predicts The 500th U.S. Sub-4 Miler

Dave Albo / lane1photos

Last week, Donavan Brazier became the 493rd American to break four minutes in the mile. We've seen a total of 68 Americans run sub-four for the first time over the past three years. Therefore, it is very likely that the 500th American to break four minutes will do it during this upcoming indoor season.

Who will the 500th athlete be?

First, we need to take a look at potential first-time sub-four milers in 2018. Below is a list of Americans who ran a 1500 or mile that converts to 4:02 or faster in 2017.

Potential First Time Sub-4 Milers In 2018:

2017 Best Mile/1500Mile ConversionAthlete
4:01.49A3:55.60Ben Saarel
4:01.72A3:55.82Joe Klecker
3:39.533:57.09Charlie Marquardt
3:39.563:57.12David Ribich
3:39.823:57.41David Timlin
4:03.54A3:58.23Dillon Maggard
3:40.593:58.24Austin Tamagno
3:40.603:58.25Garrett O'Toole
3:40.733:58.39Jeff Thies
3:40.783:58.44Scott Snow
3:40.853:58.52Alex Rogers
3:41.213:58.91Caleb Hoover
4:07.52A#3:59.13Diego Leon
3:41.443:59.16Will Crocker
3:41.683:59.41Chase Horrocks
3:41.763:59.50Kasey Knevelbaard
3:42.123:59.89MJ Erb
4:00.084:00.08Ethan Homan
3:42.374:00.16Jesse Reiser
4:00.164:00.16Cooper Teare
3:42.464:00.26Christian Delago
3:42.504:00.30Mick Stanovsek
3:42.524:00.32Kyle Burdick
4:00.374:00.37Kyle Mau
3:42.604:00.41Arturo Sotomayor
4:00.474:00.47Trevor Gilley
3:42.664:00.47Isaac Garcia-Cassani
4:00.504:00.50Brandon Hazouri
4:00.604:00.60Luis Vargas
4:00.614:00.61Sam Worley
3:42.814:00.63Shane Streich
4:00.654:00.65Eric Holt
4:00.654:00.65Brian Shrader
3:42.864:00.69Austin O'Neil
3:42.874:00.70Sydney Gidabuday
4:00.734:00.73D.J. Principe
3:42.904:00.73Ryan Adams
3:42.954:00.79Jefferson Abbey
3:42.964:00.80Brandon Doughty
4:00.874:00.87Jack Thomas
3:43.084:00.93Daniel Gagne
3:43.094:00.94Kyle Medina
3:43.164:01.01Eric van der Els
4:01.044:01.04Vincent Ciattei
4:01.084:01.08Jon Davis
3:43.264:01.12Carl Hirsch
3:43.344:01.21Marcus Dickson
3:43.454:01.33Derek Wiebke
3:43.464:01.34Austin Anaya
3:43.484:01.36Matt Dorsey
4:01.464:01.46Kevin Greene
3:43.584:01.47Octavio Davila
3:43.624:01.51Nick Rivera
3:43.634:01.52Jack Guyton
4:01.554:01.55Patrick Gregory
3:43.674:01.56Dan Curts
3:43.704:01.60Michael Hall
4:01.764:01.76Brodey Hasty
3:43.894:01.80Blake Nelson
3:43.984:01.90Christopher Marco
4:01.914:01.91Luis Romero
3:44.014:01.93Dan Castle

After analyzing these 62 athletes' potential 2018 indoor seasons, we've come up with this list for the next seven U.S. sub-4 milers.

494Brandon HazouriSamford Collegiate InvitationalJAN 19TH
495Eric HoltBU John Thomas Terrier ClassicJAN 27TH
496Ethan HomanBU John Thomas Terrier ClassicJAN 27TH
497Charlie MarquardtDr. Sander InvitationalJAN 27TH
498Trevor GilleyRazorback InvitationalJAN 27TH
499Ben SaarelUW InvitationalJAN 27TH
500Joe KleckerUW InvitationalJAN 27TH

In this scenario, the UW Invitational mile will be the race to decide who will become the 500th American to break four minutes in the mile and the action will be LIVE on FloTrack!

Watch last year's UW Invitational mile, which was won by Justyn Knight:

Men's Mile, Round 1 Heat 5

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